Boris Backed to Be Back as Sunak Has That Sinking Feeling
Rishi Sunak’s government is at loggerheads with trade unions. Consequently, the UK is dealing with the worst strike action since the 1980s. Inflation is at one of its highest levels in 40 years. And the Conservative Party is drowning under a sea of bullying and sleaze allegations. As a Tory MP or party member is there much reason to cheer?
After 100 days at the helm, recent polls show Sunak is less popular than any of his recent predecessors were at this point in time. The list includes Boris Johnson, Theresa May and Gordon Brown. Unsurprisingly, Labour leader Kier Starmer is strengthening as the favorite to become the country’s leader following the next general election.
Can Boris Johnson regain control as Rishi Sunak struggles? ©GettyImages
Starmer was available on 8/11 in the ‘next Prime Minister’ (following a general election) betting list in mid-September. UK bookmakers brave enough to offer prices on the next election now quote the MP for Holborn and St Pancras on 1/3.
Is Johnson’s House Hunt a Strong Statement?
Sunak is top-priced 3/1 with Ladbrokes in the same market. But many believe Boris Johnson is set to return as the Conservative Party leader. Amid rumors of a switch to a safer constituency, Bumbling Boris is just 8/1 to be the UK’s next PM.
Newspaper reports suggest Johnson has been house-hunting in Oxfordshire. It has triggered speculation he is planning to stand in his old stomping ground, Henley. 58-year-old Johnson is 7/4 to win any seat at the next general election.
He is also 9/2 to return to the Conservative helm and be the next Tory leader. Other candidates for the top Conservative job include Kemi Badenoch (6/1) and Penny Mordaunt (7/1). This pair ran for the leadership of the party last year.
Ben Wallace and Jeremy Hunt are other possible leaders of the blues. Both can be backed on 12/1. At 16/1, Brexit supporter James Cleverly follows in the betting.
When Will Sunak Leave His Job?
The sharks could be circling for a while as Rishi Sunak is thought likely to see out 2023. He is even-money to be replaced as his party leader in 2024, the year the next general election is expected to be called.
With Labour quoted as the 1/5 favorite to win the most seats at the next election, an attempt to hold the public vote back as long as possible makes sense for the Tories. However, that election must be staged before January 25th, 2025.
Sunak making it into 2025 as Conservative leader is a 6/4 shot. If you believe 2023 will be his Waterloo, head to the William Hill review which will give you odds of 4/1.
Starmer’s position looks rock solid. The leading political betting sites quote a 2023 departure on 10/1. It is possible – in 1994 Labour leader (then leader of the opposition) John Smith died unexpectedly of a heart attack – but odds of 3/10 on a 2025 or later departure underline his popularity within his party.
