Who Will Reign Supreme in Cheltenham Novices’ Hurdle?

by Roy Brindley, 28 February 2024

The 2024 Cheltenham Festival kicks off on Tuesday, March 12th, at 1.30 pm with its traditional curtain-raising race, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins has a strong hand in the contest. He fields the top three in the betting, giving him a serious chance of landing this famous two-miler for an eighth time.

Nicky Henderson has won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle four times. His first winner was Flown in 1992. Altior gave Henderson a second success in 2016, and Shishkin took the race for the Lambourn trainer in 2020. His latest winner was Constitution Hill in 2022 – when the future Champion Hurdle winner beat stablemate Jonbon by 22 lengths.

Ballyburn pulled well clear of his rivals when winning at the Dublin Racing Festival. ©GettyImages

In a day and age where a few elite stables dominate the Cheltenham Festival it is noteworthy that Gordon Elliott has won the Supreme only once. Multiple British Champion trainer Paul Nicholls has landed the race twice. Al Ferof, in 2011, was Nicholls’ last Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner.

Following the success of Marine Nationale for Barry O’Connell twelve months ago – and Summerville Boy in 2018 for Tom George – can a smaller stable land the Supreme Novices in 2024? Here, we will delve deeper into the history books, look at the entries for this year’s race, and, in betting order, assess the chances of those towards the top of the betting.

Who Will Run in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle?

Willie Mullins has a remarkable 15 entries in the contest. His three strongest contenders are market leaders Ballyburn, Tullyhill and Mystical Power. Using the best prices currently offered by Cheltenham Festival bookmakers, combined it is 2/5 that one of these horses will win the race.

However, with two of this Mullins trio having alternative engagements, will they all take part in the race? And how many horses will the Irish maestro run in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle? The following 38 horses hold an entry for the contest ahead of the confirmation stage and final declarations.

The Fate of the Supreme Favourites

The maximum Supreme Novices’ Hurdle field size is 22. In recent years, the race has attracted an average of 14 runners. Nevertheless, this is a good race for horses situated towards the head of the betting. The starting prices of the most recent ten winners have been: 9/2, 9/4, 8/11, 6/1, 6/1, 7/1, 25/1, 4/1, 2/1, 7/2.

Labaik was the horse that scored at 25/1 odds. Winning a maiden hurdle at Punchestown and a Grade-3 novice hurdle in Navan, he was always classy. However, bookending those performances and preceding his Festival success were five refusals to race. In terms of assessing historical form, he was enigmatic and a blip on the landscape.

Who Are This Year’s Leading Contenders?

Ballyburn – Race Record: 111-211

Always travelling well when easily landing the Grade-1 Tattersalls Ireland 50th Derby Sale Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival, Ballyburn looked like a champion in the making. But it should not be forgotten he was no match for another Supreme Novices’ Hurdle entry, Firefox, on his hurdling debut in December.

“𝙃𝙚 𝙧𝙚𝙢𝙞𝙣𝙙𝙨 𝙢𝙚 𝙤𝙛 𝙁𝙖𝙪𝙜𝙝𝙚𝙚𝙣”

🔥 Willie Mullins clearly holds Ballyburn in high regard, but is yet to decide on his Cheltenham Festival target… pic.twitter.com/1Oo4qgimiO

— Sporting Life Racing (@SportingLife) February 27, 2024

Furthermore, this six-year-old has an entry in the Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle on day two of the Festival. A contest raced over two miles and five furlongs; connections must give that alternative engagement serious consideration – as Ballyburn relished racing and winning over 20 furlongs during Christmas.

Tullyhill – Race Record: 112-211

Grade-1 placed in his second start under rules in a National Hunt flat race. He was off the track for seven months after, but even so, Tullyhill was massively disappointing when beaten 24 lengths into second at 1/8 odds on his hurdle debut in late November. His conqueror has achieved little since.

Two impressive wide-margin victories have followed, and he looks like a big-race winner waiting to happen. If that big race success comes at Cheltenham’s Prestbury Park, then it can only come in the Supreme – as it is the only race Tullyhill is entered in.

Mystical Power – Race Record: 111

The third of Willie Mullins’s big three, Mystical Power, like Ballyburn, also has an alternative entry in the Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle. A son of the great Annie Power, this JP McManus-owner gelding would be a massively popular winner.

However, Mystical Power’s two wins over hurdles came accompanied by some slight jumping errors, and his regal pedigree – allied to an owner that can have the UK’s bookmakers running for cover – means he is probably too short in the betting.

Firefox – Race Record: 11-114

Firefox achieved the rare feat of winning three consecutive National Hunt Flat races before switching to hurdles at Fairyhouse, where he made all the running to beat Ballyburn convincingly. If heading directly to the Festival after that run, this Gordon Elliott-trained horse would be at the top of the betting.

However, a step up in trip and class saw him beaten into fourth in the Grade-1 Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle. If something was amiss that day – it was a race run at a strange pace, and he has not run since – then Firefox could still have a big say in proceedings.

Jeriko Du Reponet – Race Record: 1-111

The best of the home defence, Jeriko Du Reponet, joined Nicky Henderson after winning an Irish Point-to-Point in March. He is now unbeaten in three hurdle starts, most recently taking a Grade-2 at Doncaster. Evidence of that hard-earned success suggests he will need more than two miles in time, and his jumping needs some polishing up.

Pulls out more! 👊

Jeriko Du Reponet grinds out victory in the Grade 2 @SBK Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle at @DoncasterRaces for Mark Walsh and @sevenbarrows! pic.twitter.com/vki39c80fV

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) January 27, 2024

Dysert Enos – Race Record: 111-111

Did well to win three National Hunt Flat races for the Fergal O’Brien stable last season and has been well placed by the yard to win three relatively weak hurdles this term – at odds of 1/7, 5/6 and 1/9. As a mare, she will receive seven pounds from most rivals, but mares have a poor record in this contest.

Slade Steel – Race Record: 113-112

Beaten into third seven lengths adrift of Ballyburn in a Punchestown National Hunt Flat race last April and, after two victories over hurdles, was seven lengths behind the same rival at the Dublin Racing Festival. Finding a reason for that form to be reversed is not easy.

Mistergif – Race Record: 52-1

He failed to win at huge prices on the flat in his native France and started on 21/1 and 36/1 in two hurdle attempts there. However, Mistergif was purchased by wealthy connections and joined Willie Mullins in November 2023.

He justified significant overnight market support to beat 14 rivals – including two stablemates – by 18 lengths on his first and only start for new connections at Limerick (heavy ground) at the end of January. An enigma given five of his siblings failed to win a race, and a mile on the flat was as far as any wanted to go.

What Is the Best Supreme Bet?

Jumping errors will be punished in this race – a contest that is always run at a furious pace. As Jeriko Du Reponet and Mystical Power have not always been fluent in the jumping department, they are struck from calculations. Dysert Enos has beaten little of note and, as a mare, the red flag is raised.

Ballyburn posted some excellent figures when winning at the Dublin Racing Festival and looked machine-like when destroying the field. Will he take his place in the Supreme field though? If you are a fan, it would be best to back him with ‘non-runner no-bet’ terms. But Tullyhill beat some nice sorts when scoring convincingly at Punchestown on his latest start, and he appears to have the edge on betting value grounds.