DRF Suggests Mullins Win Factory Can Better Cheltenham Record
On social media, last weekend’s Dublin Racing Festival was widely referred to by the initialism DRF. Such was trainer Willie Mullins’s success; the Leopardstown highlight could soon be renamed the WMRF! WM scooped every Grade-1 race over the two-day festival, eight in total. Taking an additional Grade-2 contest, his stables won nine of the Dublin circuit’s 15 races.
The Racing Post newspaper quickly pointed out that Mullins’ eight Grade-1 winners came at an accumulative 6,504/1 odds. However, with multiple runners in some contests, a perm on his horses in these eight races would have required 17,280 bets.
The Willie Mullins-trained Fact To File finished alone in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase, but he is now the clear favourite for the Turners Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. ©GettyImages
Despite Mullins’s outstanding success, regularly winning money on his runners is almost impossible. In Ireland this season, the County Carlow-based trainer has operated at a 33 percent strike rate, producing 201 winners from 615 runners. Nevertheless, punters that backed each of his runners to a £1 level stake would still be showing a £66.26 loss!
Backing the Right Mullins’ Horses – A Balancing Act
Mullins’ horses habitually start at odds shorter than their probability of winning. If they did not, horse racing betting sites would have a gaping hole in their spreadsheets every winter. But such is the competitive nature of the Cheltenham Festival, punters can still spin a profit on the horses trained by the Irish maestro.
In 2022, Mullins trained a record-breaking ten winners at the Cheltenham Festival, and he has entered the Cheltenham Festival’s winners circle a record 94 times during his training career. In 1996, at the age of 40, he rode a Cheltenham Festival winner when Wither Or Witch landed the Champion Bumper.
Will Willie Mullins once again have a hatful of winners at the 2024 Festival? Almost certainly. Will backing all of his runners to level stakes yield a profit? That is far from certain. Being selective is the key to all forms of successful betting, and backing only Mullins’ Grade-1 DRF winners to score at Cheltenham in March is a particularly attractive approach.
12/1 Song and Dance for Albert Bartlett
Dancing City was the first of Mullins’ DRF Grade-1 winners. Unfancied in the six-runner field, which featured four Mullins’ trained runners – including the highly-touted Predators Gold – this six-year-old belied his 16/1 odds in the two-mile-six-furlong novices’ hurdle.
Mullins suggested the testing ground suited the race winner. “I think he looks ready-made for the [three-mile] Albert Bartlett; he has the experience, he goes the trip, and he’ll handle the ground. That’s where we hope he’ll go,” said the trainer of Dancing City.
The best Cheltenham Festival bookmakers have Dancing City quoted on 12/1 for the Albert Bartlett. The Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle is an alternative target. Both Dancing City and Predators Gold can be backed on 20/1 for that Festival contest.
IL Etait Temps Battles to Triumph
Kargese was the best of 11 runners in the McCann FitzGerald Spring Juvenile Hurdle – a race restricted to four-year-olds. Six of the field hailed from Mullins’ yard and, interestingly, the stable’s number one jockey, Paul Townend, opted to ride the once-raced Storm Heart, who finished second beaten one-and-a-quarter lengths.
Mullins said of his runners – who filled the first four places (and sixth and eighth) post-race: “They all ran well today and have booked their tickets for the Triumph Hurdle.” Kargese, a filly, is industry top-priced on 7/1 with Coral bookmakers for the contest. The price makes her clear second favourite behind Nicky Henderson’s Sir Gino, who is marginally odds-on.
🚀 Il Etait Temps causes a stir in the Irish Arkle
Marine Nationale disappoints as Willie & @dan2231 make it 3-3 at the Dublin Racing Festival @LeopardstownRC pic.twitter.com/HQq8thGIBj
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) February 3, 2024
Il Etait Temps, ridden like Dancing City and Kargese by Danny Mullins, was Saturday’s third Grade-1 winner for the Mullins factory. Stablemates Facile Vega and Sharja were amongst his opposition, but Marine Nationale – unbeaten over obstacles – was 4/7 favourite to win the Irish Arkle.
Beaten over ten lengths into fifth, Marine National produced a tame performance, whereas Il Etait Temps showed battling qualities to score by a neck over Gordon Elliott’s Found A Fifty. Bookmakers believe all three will reappear in Cheltenham’s Arkle Novices’ Chase, where they currently bet: 5/2 Marine Nationale (from 4/6), 4/1 Il Etait Temps, 5/1 Found A Fifty.
Des Champs Can Gallop Back-To-Back Again
Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Galopin Des Champs had the ideal preparation for the defence of his title when beating old adversary Fastorslow by four lengths in a fine make-all display in the Irish Gold Cup.
11/10 odds on Galopin Des Champs becoming only the second back-to-back Gold Cup winner since Best Mate in 2024 were trimmed to 10/11 after the three-mile contest. The testing conditions meant it took almost six-and-a-half minutes to complete the race. It was a prize the Mullins-trained star also claimed in 2023.
Willie Mullins was always going to win the first Grade 1 of the DRF’s second day. To the dismay of fans, punters and bookmakers, only two horses went to post for the Ladbrokes Novice Chase, and they both came from the Mullins’ yard.
Choice of Targets for Two Stars
In the event, Fact To File was well on top when Gaelic Warrior unseated his rider at the final fence. In the process, €57,000 of prize money was forfeited in the race. JP McManus still received €88,500 for his horse’s victory, and more could come his way at the Cheltenham Festival.
Fact To File impressed UK bookmakers so much that he is now quoted on 7/4 for the Turners Novices’ Chase (from 10/1). He is also 3/1 (from 5/1) for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase. In post-race interviews, Mullins struggled to contain his enthusiasm for his winner, suggesting he is destined to reach the very top of the sport.
Back over hurdles and in the novice division, Mullins fired five bullets at the Grade-1 Tattersalls Ireland 50th Derby Sale Novice Hurdle and hit the target with Ballyburn. Four times a winner from a five-race career, this six-year-old homebred landed 10/11 odds to score by seven lengths and book his Cheltenham Festival ticket.
The world looks like his oyster, and Ballyburn is the 7/4 favourite for the Cheltenham Festival’s opening race, the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. He is also a possible for the Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle. 3/1 is the best price available for him in this contest.
As not all firms offer ‘non-runner-no-bet’ terms, be sure to comb through the leading Cheltenham Festival betting sites to ensure you get the best terms (and best price) if you intend to back Ballyburn for one of these assignments.
El Fabiolo Is Champion Man
Fielding four of the five runners in the Ladbrokes Dublin Chase, Mullins duly took Grade-1 victory number seven. It was El Fabiolo who claimed this 17-furlong prize – in doing so he took his record to six unbeaten starts over fences.
The winner of last season’s Arkle Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, he sauntered clear of his rivals to make the destination of the 2024 Champion Chase appear inevitable. 10/11 for the two-mile contest before the weekend, El Fabiolo is now 2/5 to take the prize and complete an eight-timer.
🟡⚫️ State Man – Irish Champion Hurdle hero again @LeopardstownRC
🏇 13 runs 🥇 10 wins 🏆🏆 G1 Irish Champion Hurdle 🏆🏆 G1 Matheson Hurdle 🏆🏆 G1 Morgiana Hurdle 🏆 G1 Punchestown Champion Hurdle 🏆 G1 Punchestown Novice Hurdle 📅 Constitution Hill awaits in March pic.twitter.com/cOjIPpCwAm
— Racing TV (@RacingTV) February 4, 2024
State Man’s record is equally impressive. It reads ten wins from his last 11 starts – his only defeat coming against Constitution Hill in the 2023 Champion Hurdle. Can he topple the great horse in the much-anticipated re-match? Following his easy victory in Sunday’s Irish Champion Hurdle, State Man is now 3/1 to take the festival’s biggest hurdle prize.
Counting Aces in Willie’s Deck Loaded Deck
Willie Mullins lit up the Dublin Racing Festival, and it will be fascinating to see how many of his eight Grade-1 winners will double up at the Cheltenham Festival. And this octet are not necessarily Mullin’s strongest cards. Lossiemouth, the odds-on favourite in Mares Hurdle ante-post betting, is one of many additional aces that could give the trainer a record haul at jump racing’s Holy Grail.
