How Do Bookmakers Bet on 2024s US and UK Elections?
On Tuesday, November 5, there will be fireworks in America when, for the 60th time, the country will go to the ballot box to elect its president. No date is set, but the UK must stage its next General Election before January 28, 2025. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has repeatedly suggested he will set aside a “second half of the year” slot for the vote.
It could be a bluff, but the UK bookmakers believe the next election will take place in October, November or December. Online betting sites quote those three months collectively as a 2/7 shot. An April, May or June election is quoted on 5/1; the trio of July, August or September is 12/1.
All looks good for Keir Starmer, but could Jeremey Corbyn help show Sadiq Khan the door? You can bet on it! ©Getty
Election betting of all kinds is big business for the gambling industry. Betting exchanges have registered £10 million in matched bets on the 2024 US Election winner so far. As both elections draw closer, dozens of betting markets related to both public votes will appear. Here, you can learn how bookmakers currently view the prospects of the political parties and their candidates.
Will Michelle Come First in Democrat Race?
Joe Biden is the overwhelming 1/5 favourite to lead the Democratic Party into the next US Election. The former First Lady, Michelle Obama, has emerged as his chief threat despite not committing to challenging the commander-in-chief.
A sitting elected president has only failed to win their own party’s nomination once – Franklin Pierce in 1852. Nevertheless, Obama is top-priced 7/1 to snatch the Democratic nomination from Joe Biden at the Democratic National Convention in August.
Others quoted include California Governor Gavin Newsom, who is 16/1. Vice President Kamala Harris can be backed on 50/1 odds at Unibet. In the aftermath of the 2020 election, she was 4/1 to become the next US President!
Who Will Be the Republican VP Nominee?
The race is apparently over in the Republican Party. Donald Trump is top-priced 1/20 to lead the Grand Old Party in the next election. Nikki Haley is his only, but remote, threat. The former United States Ambassador to the United Nations trades as the 14/1 second favourite.
Republican Vice President nominee betting is much closer. South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem narrowly heads the list on 9/2. The Chairperson of the House Republican Conference, 39-year-old Elise Stefanik, follows on 5/1 at the Coral online betting site.
Former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who appeared with Trump on stage in New Hampshire a day after dropping out of the race, is 13/2. Ben Carson (8/1), the former United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development and Tim Scott (10/1) are others in the race.
Who Will Win the Race to the White House?
In basic terms, all online sports betting sites make the Republic Party favourites to regain power in November’s Presidential Election. BetVictor has little doubt and, in this market, offers the shortest odds, 8/11, on a Republican being installed in the White House on January 20, 2025.
Conversely, Betvictor’s 11/10 quote on the Democrats remaining in power is the biggest in the betting industry. BetVictor is also short on an Independent candidate taking office – quoting just 18/1. The Unibet sportsbook is far more dismissive, offering 33/1.
Donald Trump regaining the presidency is considered an even-money shot by most betting firms. However, Spreadex firmly believes Joe Biden will not serve a second term. Whereas some betting companies quote the 81-year-old on 7/4, this bookmaker offers 5/2. Amongst voters – and possibly the Spreadex odds compilers – age and cognition are huge Biden stumbling blocks.
Joe Biden has confused President Macron with former French leader Francois Mitterrand who died in 1996. The US president made the gaffe during a campaign speech in Las Vegas, as he recalled a meeting with G7 leaders in June 2021.
Read more 👉 https://news.sky.com/story/joe-biden-mixes-up-emmanuel-macron-with-dead-french-leader-francois-mitterand-13065692 pic.twitter.com/vUIG9miZIe
— Sky News (@SkyNews) February 6, 2024
The veteran has made countless verbal blunders during his presidency. Most recently, he confused French President Emmanuel Macron with former French President Mitterrand – who died in 1996! He also referenced Helmut Kohl when discussing a meeting at the G7 during his first year in office. Kohl, chancellor of Germany from 1982 to 1998, died in 2017!
The Majority of Punters Like Labour Party
Domestically, the question of who will lead the UK after the next General Election appears much more straightforward. Keir Starmer’s odds range between 1/6 and 1/12; Rishi Sunak is 6/1. Punters can find better value in the ‘next government’ betting, although it also features a long odds-on favourite.
A Labour majority is 2/9, a Labour minority is 4/1 and then, in betting order, political betting sites quote: 8/1 a Labour-Liberal coalition, 14/1 a Conservative minority, 14/1 a Conservative majority and 25/1 a Labour-SNP coalition.
Should Rishi Sunak lose his grip on power, he is likely to step down as the Tory leader. Never accused of being under-prepared, the UK’s best election betting sites have a market featuring a full complement of contenders for his replacement.
Kemi Badenoch heads the betting on the next Conservative leader following Rishi Sunak’s departure. The Secretary of State for Business and Trade is 9/4. Penny Mordaunt, who has run twice for the Conservative party leadership – losing to Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak during a calamitous 2022 – is 5/1 second favourite.
Suella Braverman (6/1), James Cleverly (8/1), Robert Jenrik (14/1), former Prime Minister David Cameron (20/1), Steve Barclay (33/1), Tom Tugendhat (33/1), Priti Patel (33/1) and David Frost (40/1) are other contenders.
Is Corbyn a Sadiq Thorn in London?
The 2024 London mayoral election will be held on May 2, 2024. It will take place on the same day as local elections across England and Wales. And it is more good news for Labour. The incumbent Sadiq Khan, representing the Labour Party, is 1/10 to retain the position he assumed in May 2006.
The Conservative candidate, Susan Hall, is quoted as a standout 9/1 shot by Betfred. Figuratively speaking, other firms are more conservative. William Hill has Hall priced on just 5/1. The surprise package in this betting market is Jeremy Corbyn. The former Labour leader said he would consider standing for mayor as an Independent candidate when asked in August 2023.
A month later, research conducted by global polling and strategic consulting firm Redfield & Wilton Strategies indicated Corbyn’s inclusion as an official London Mayor candidate could dramatically affect Sadiq Khan’s chances. The result of a poll that included Corbyn suggested Susan Hall would be the most likely election winner with 30 percent of the vote – ahead of Khan (25 percent vote share).
