Max Verstappen Can Clinch the 2022 F1 Championship in Japan
Max Verstappen made no secret of his disappointment and frustration in the wake of last weekend’s Singapore Grand Prix qualifying session and subsequent race. The Dutch driver was unfortunate to start the race in eighth, and a rare errant drive in the contest resulted in him finishing only seventh.
But with his teammate, Sergio Perez, winning the contest convincingly, he should take some solace that his Red Bull car remains a cut above its rivals. Mathematically Verstappen is closer than ever to becoming crowned the 2022 world champion. And this weekend’s race in Japan should present far fewer obstacles than the tricky Singapore Marina Bay circuit.
Max Verstappen congratulates his teammate, Sergio Perez, for his race victory in last weekend’s Singapore Grand Prix. ©GettyImages
Japan’s Suzuka International Racing Course has a very different configuration. Popular with conventionalists, it is often compared to Spa-Francorchamps. But, in addition to the flat-out sections of the track the Belgian circuit is renowned for, Suzuka has a fair share of slower sectors. The slow-speed Casio Triangle chicane is unquestionably the best overtaking place on the 3.6-mile track.
Verstappen Odds-On to Be Crowned 2022 Champion in Japan
Verstappen is top-priced 3/5 to score on Sunday. Unlike last weekend – when he was 2/5 before qualifying – the price seems generous. The reigning world champion was a convincing winner at the comparable Spa and Monza circuits in the past few months. Additionally, he took the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Early June. It is a race that also features long flat-out sections and slow sectors.
Amongst multiple scenarios, to become the 2022 world champion at the weekend, Verstappen needs to justify his odds-on price and Charles Leclerc must finish lower than second. If Verstappen can win and set the fastest lap of the race, Leclerc’s finishing position would be inconsequential. Max would join Michael Schumacher (2001 and 2004) and Sebastian Vettel (2011) in taking the title with four races of the season remaining.
Verstappen can become a back-to-back world champion on Sunday without winning. Simply scoring eight or more points than Leclerc and six or more points than Perez will suffice. With all factors considered, the top Formula 1 betting sites are quoting 4/7 that Verstappen will be confirmed as the 2022 world champion this Sunday.
The next race, in Austin, Texas, is priced at 6/4 to act as the 25-year-old’s coronation. Mexico, one week later, is 16/1. And the unthinkable scenario of Max squandering his 104-point lead is available at 100/1.
Ten Seconds-Plus a Safe Winning Margin Bet
Verstappen will not lose his world championship crown, and we predict he will win with authority on Sunday. Tracks with long laps and lots of straight-line speed tend to elongate Formula 1 fields. For example, in 2019 – when this race was last staged – the winning margin was 13 seconds.
That year, there was a minute between first and fourth and only five cars finished on the lead lap. Therefore, our first recommended bet is a winning margin of over 10 seconds. BetVictor and bet365 quote this scenario at 13/8.
Esteban Can Make a Point Again
Esteban Ocon is of interest in the ‘points finish’ market. The Frenchman has declared Suzuka to be his favorite circuit and he has an excellent points-finish record when his car does not fail him. Only three times from his 15 completed races has the Alpine driver failed to score points in 2022.
4/6 is available about the 2021 Hungarian Grand Prix winner finishing within the top-10 – the positions where points are awarded. It looks like a generous price. In a clean run contest, the 26-year-old driver that sits eighth in the drivers’ championship should be good for eighth spot or better.
Recommended Japanese Grand Prix Bets
Race Winner: Max Verstappen 3/5
Winning Margin: 10 seconds-plus 13/8
Points Finish: Esteban Ocon 4/6
