Judd and Slimline Allen Fancied in the Northern Ireland Open
The fourth ranking tournament of snooker’s 2022/23 season will take place at Belfast’s Waterfront Hall this week. Following six rounds of action and seven days of snooker, the eventual BetVictor Northern Ireland Open winner will receive the champion’s trophy and an £80,000 prize on Sunday, October 23rd.
The only thing still lofty about Northern Ireland’s Mark Allen is his reputation. ©GettyImages
Beating Ronnie O’Sullivan 9-7 in the final, Judd Trump won the Northern Ireland Open for a third consecutive year in 2020. But home hero Mark Allen captured the title in 2021. These three players, and the remainder of the world’s top 16, will have to play a qualifying match in Belfast before entering the 64-player draw.
It should be plain sailing for snooker’s elite. Ronnie O’Sullivan meets world number 96 Lukas Kleckers. Mark Selby needs to overcome Reanne Evans, and Neil Robertson will surely prove too strong for Fraser Patrick. Judd Trump plays the veteran and world-ranked 109 Rod Lawler. John Higgins – beaten 9-8 in last year’s decider – faces an even lower-ranked opponent, Fergal O’Brien.
Judd Trump Has Aced the Pack in the Past
Broadcast by Eurosport and Quest in the UK, the BetVictor Northern Ireland Open is the first of the 2022/23 season’s Home Nations events. It will be followed by the Scottish, English and Welsh Opens. Last season these related tournaments produced four individual winners – Mark Allen, Neil Robertson, Luca Brecel and Joe Perry.
Remarkably John Higgins was a beaten finalist in three of these events. Ronnie O’Sullivan also finished runner-up three times during the 2020/21 season. The most successful player in terms of Home Nations victories in recent times is Judd Trump. He has landed four Home Nations tournaments since taking this event in 2018.
Except for the 2016 Northern Irish Open and the 2022 Welsh Open – won by Joe Perry who was then world-ranked number 42 – these tournaments have always gone the way of a top-ranked player. The 2022 Northern Irish Open is unlikely to prove any different.
Have an Eye Full of Trump
The leading snooker betting sites cannot identify a clear favorite. Ronnie O’Sullivan – fresh from his victory in last week’s Hong Kong Open – can be backed at 11/2. As can Neil Robertson who skipped the first three ranking tournaments of 2022. He was beaten 6-4 by O’Sullivan in the semi-final of the Hong Kong event.
Judd Trump is available on 13/2, Mark Selby is 10s, Mark Allen, John Higgins, and Kyren Wilson have quotes ranging between 14/1 and 18/1. Of the Chinese players, Zhao Xintong is priced at 22/1. Ding Junhui is given a 28/1 quote and Yan Bingtao can be backed at 33/1.
It is difficult to predict with any confidence who will win this competition but identifying where the value lies is easier. Two players, at the prices, take the eye. They are the defending champion, Mark Allen and Judd Trump.
Allen Can Focus On Winning
Mark Allen played a stormer in last month’s British Open. He readily brushed aside the capable Gary Wilson, Judd Trump, Mark Selby, and Noppon Saengkham en route to the final that he led at 7-6 before Ryan Day smashed in a series of 70-plus breaks to take the title.
“The best atmosphere I’ve ever experienced” 🔊
Mark Allen looks to defend his @BetVictor Northern Ireland Open title in front of his home fans, starting Sunday!
🎟 https://www.wst.tv/tickets/home-nations-series-2022-northern-ireland-open/ pic.twitter.com/rWMSs7G2JP
— World Snooker Tour (@WeAreWST) October 11, 2022
During the competition, Allen registered eight century breaks – including a 143 total clearance – and six 125-plus scores. Much of that excellent form can be attributed to his massive weight loss. The 36-year-old has shed five stones in just four months.
This week the news broke that Allen has also taken a weight off his mind by declaring bankruptcy. Making all the right noises, back on home soil and before an adoring crowd, the rejuvenated player can make a good fist of retaining his title.
Format Win Ratio Makes Amazing Reading
Trump is exceptional at the Home Nations format where the first three rounds are a ‘best of seven frames’ setup. During the past four years, he has played 85 such matches and won an astonishing 77 of them. It is a win ratio in excess of 90 percent.
His form may appear shaky, but Judd’s break-building has been obscenely good and his third-round exit at the British Open – by a 4-3 score-line to Mark Allen – could transpire to be one of the most important matches of the early season.
Naysayers will say Trump is marginally below his best and they would be right. But he has been a clear favorite for this competition for the past three seasons – justifying the odds twice. The ‘Ace in the Pack’ should not be 13/2 to roll back the clock just a few months and bounce back to winning ways.
