Can Resurgent MVG Win His Fourth World Darts Championship?
Michael van Gerwen took his sixth World Grand Prix title on Sunday night. The star eliminated former world champions Peter Wright and Gary Anderson on his way to the final. In the decider he dismissed 2019 and 2020 world championship semi-finalist, Nathan Aspinal, to add £120,000 to his career earnings.
Michael van Gerwen landed the 2022 World Grand Prix at the weekend. What more can he win this season? ©PDC
It was the second darting major won by 33-year-old van Gerwen this season. In July, he beat Gerwyn Price in the final of the World Matchplay. Three more ranking televised events are scheduled before the World Championship gets underway in December.
These are the European Championship (October 27-30), the Grand Slam of Darts (November 12-20), and the Players Championship finals (November 25-27). Can van Gerwen win one or more of these? Remarkably, in the 2015, 2016, and 2017 seasons MVG captured all these titles. Not once, but all three for three consecutive years!
Will a Fourth World Title Follow?
Of course, the mid-to-late 2010s was an era when the Dutchman was invincible. He was world-ranked number one for seven consecutive seasons starting in 2014. He won the valuable Masters tournament five times in succession and claimed the Premier League five times.
However, 2020 while yielding two major titles, was statistically his poorest season since 2013. The worst was to come. In 2021 the wheels truly fell off the van Gerwen juggernaut. There were no titles, just one appearance in a televised ranking major. He lost his status as the table topper on the PDC Order of Merit and finished the season as the world-ranked number-three player.
Taking the non-ranking but valuable Premier League in June, van Gerwen is enjoying 2022 more than 2021 or 2020. The big question is, what can he win during the remainder of the year, and can he land a fourth World Championship – his first since 2019?
The Grand Prix is a proven form-pointer to World Championship success. In 2020 Gerwyn Price won the event before taking the biggest tournament of them all. Van Gerwen completed the same double in 2018 and 2016.
Is MVG Back to His Very Best?
There is no denying van Gerwen is playing better than he has at any part of the past two years. “This week, Michael has been amazing – he’s back to his best and he’s been the deserved winner of this tournament,” said Nathan Aspinall in the aftermath of his defeat to MVG in the final of the Grand Prix.
But the best odds darts betting sites are not in agreement. They suggest he is still some way below his best. During his finest seasons, van Gerwen would begin the World Championship as the competition’s 6/4 outright favorite. 7/2 is currently available about MVG for the next World Championship.
The competition will begin on December 15. It allows his form – and that of all players – to improve or deteriorate appreciably during the interim. The current PDC Order of Merit is listed below. Included are the odds available at the best darts betting sites.
- Gerwyn Price 6/1
- Peter Wright 7/1
- Michael van Gerwen 7/2
- Michael Smith 16/1
- James Wade 50/1
- Jose de Sousa 66/1
- Jonny Clayton 12/1
- Rob Cross 40/1
- Danny Noppert 33/1
- Gary Anderson 40/1
Few Clues Found on One Year List
But these rankings are based on the amount of prize money won in ranking tournaments over the past two years. Therefore it is not a good indicator of the current well-being and form of any player.
The year-to-date list is currently headed by van Gerwen. James Wade, Jose de Sousa, Jonny Clayton, Rob Cross, and Gary Anderson do not feature on it. Joe Cullen (10th), Dirk van Duijvenbode (9th), Dimitri Van den Bergh (8th), Luke Humphries (5th), and Nathan Aspinall (4th) do.
Of these names, 16/1 shot Dimitri Van den Bergh and Luke Humphries (20/1) are the most popular. Van den Bergh won the 2020 World Matchplay title. But a dozen subsequent attempts at a televised ranking major have yielded just one appearance in a final.
Humphries has yet to win a televised major. He has only made one final during his career – the 2021 UK Open. His lofty position on the one-year list is due to a £50,000 pay-day for an appearance in the 2022 World Championship.
Genuine Rivals Are Hard to Find
So, who can stand in MVG’s way in the forthcoming World Championship? Peter Wright is the defending champion, but his 2022 has been most disappointing. He has played seven televised tournaments that have produced just one semi-final visit. In ten European Tour competitions, he has claimed a single title.
Gerwyn Price won the 2021 World Championship. Can he recapture that kind of form by December? ©Kieran Cleeves/PDC
Price has shown more. The Welshman was a finalist in the 2022 World Matchplay – beaten by MVG – and he also made the decider of the World Cup of Darts. It was a non-ranking event, but he did take the World Series of Darts finals in September.
Michael Smith is highly-rated as the bookmakers’ fourth favorite in the World Championship betting list. He was a finalist in 2019 and 2022. But a simple fact tempers enthusiasm: despite eight appearances in finals, he has never won a televised major.
Two-time winner Gary Anderson is clearly regressing. Rob Cross has not reproduced the devastating darts that won him the world title in 2018. James Wade has never reached a World Championship final in 18 attempts.
Many Highs With More to Come
At this point in time, Michael van Gerwen would appear exceptional value at his current 7/2 World Championship quote. He knows how to win at the Mecca of darts. He has also won 44 PDC premier events since 2012. Vitally, after a poor 2020 and dire 2021, he has rediscovered his magic touch.
Not only did MVG win last weekend’s World Grand Prix final, but he also recorded the highest three-dart average of the competition. Furthermore, the distinction of the highest tournament checkout – a 167 – also went to the Dutchman.
Confidence is king in darts. MVG appears to have that wind billowing in his sails! Should this feel-good factor continue for another six weeks, he must be considered odds-on to win either the European Championship, the Grand Slam of Darts, or the Players Championship finals.
Success in any of those competitions will doubtlessly result in his World Darts Championship odds being dramatically cut. So we believe now is the best time to support MVG in the Christmas time £500,000 to-the-winner classic.
