Can Avatar: The Way of Water Shoot Top Gun From Top Spot?
In this year’s smash hit movie, Top Gun: Maverick, Tom Cruise survives his jet plane disintegrating at Mach 10. The fact he successfully ejected from the craft – traveling at two miles per second – lands back on earth and then walks into a diner to order a cold drink, tells you this is not a film to be taken too seriously.
Top Gun: Maverick has been flying high at the box office. ©GettyImages
Nevertheless, the movie has been a global hit taking almost $1.5 billion in box office sales. The sequel to 1986s Top Gun cost $170 million to make. It has proven itself to be a good bet for its investors.
Top Gun: Maverick is currently well clear of its rivals in the box office sales stakes. Second-placed Jurassic World: Dominion has just surpassed $1 billion in ticket receipts. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, and Minions: Rise of Gru will probably follow suit in the coming weeks.
The Black Panther Movie Can Pounce
So, is Top Gun: Maverick a good bet to be the highest-grossing film worldwide in 2022? With a healthy advantage over these three successful movies, it would appear so. However, the Paddy Power online sportsbook – while making Top Gun: Maverick the 4/9 favorite to earn the accolade – believe it could face a stiff challenge from Avatar: The Way of Water and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is the sequel to Black Panther. That 2018 movie was a big hit taking more than $1.35 billion at the box office. However, it was released in January of that year giving it the maximum amount of time to rack-up ticket sales. Its follow-up is not due to hit the screens until November 11, 2022.
The new movie, the 30th film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, will have to sell more seats substantially quicker than its predecessor to win this particular race. It is possible, but the 9/1 on offer at the Betfair sportsbook is probably a fair reflection of its chances.
Two Weeks to Sink or Swim
Avatar: The Way of Water has an even shorter window of opportunity. James Cameron’s follow-up to 2009s Avatar will not be released until December 16th. The original movie took a record-breaking $2.85 billion in global box office sales. But its successor is likely to need to take $2 billion during a fortnight over the Christmas period to surpass Top Gun: Maverick’s 2022 box office takings.
Inflation should be factored in when comparing the new movie to its ancestor. But, considering the original movie took 19 days to reach $1 billion in box office sales, can Avatar: The Way of Water – a film that cost $250 million to produce – double what was a record at the time?
Remarkably, it is not only possible, the milestone has already been achieved. 2019s Avengers: Endgame took just 11 days to surpass $2 billion in box office ticket sales. If you believe history can repeat itself – and Avatar: The Way of Water can outstrip Top Gun: Maverick’s 2022 box office receipts by emulating Avengers: Endgame’s popularity surge – then the 15/8 offered by both Paddy Power and Betfair is the bet for you.
