What Can Formula 1 Punters Expect From 2024’s Busy Season?

by Roy Brindley, 27 February 2024

The 2024 Formula 1 season, the longest in history, kicks off in Bahrain this weekend. The holy month of Ramadan means the season’s first race will take place on Saturday instead of its traditional Sunday. Resultingly, the two one-hour free practice sessions will be staged this Thursday, while the third free practice and qualifying sessions are scheduled for Friday.

Formula 1 betting sites are in no doubt that Red Bull, more pertinently its star driver, Max Verstappen, will pick up 2024 where it left off 2023 – on the winner’s rostrum. Three days of pre-season testing saw Ferrari top the time sheets twice, but it was generally accepted that the Milton Keynes-based Red Bull has a superior car.

Lewis Hamilton’s move to Ferrari in 2025 could see Fernando Alonso go to Mercedes and Carlos Sainz head to his fifth team in eight years. ©Jiri Krenek/MercedesF1

In this piece, Roy Brindley, who has crunched Formula 1 facts and figures to make a profit gambling on motorsport’s premier division for the past 15 years, casts his eyes over the 2024 field. His expert opinion has previously pinpointed several big-priced winning bets, including Sergio Perez setting the fastest lap at the 2017 Monaco Grand Prix. The outcome was quoted on 100/1 odds by the UK’s bookmakers.

2024s Teams and Drivers Compared

Formula 1’s 2024 20-driver line-up is identical to 2023’s. Therefore, in driver/team head-to-heads, predicting a case of ‘normal service resumed’ is easy. However, with Lewis Hamilton leaving Mercedes at the end of the season and, as a consequence, Carlos Sainz being made redundant at Ferrari, a domino effect down the grid will result in a notable shakeup.

Red Bull: Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez

Verstappen won 19 of 2023’s 22 races – an 86 percent strike rate. A three-time World Champion aged 26, the Dutchman has amassed 2,586.5 World Championship points in his career. It places him third in the all-time standings. A repeat of last season – when Max scored 575 points – will see him overtake Sebastian Vettel in second place on the standings and pursue Hamilton, who has garnered 4,639.5 points.

Speed, determination and a degree of arrogance make Max Verstappen a formidable competitor. Harnessing his maverick and often errant side, a feature of his early Formula 1 career, has made him the perfect racer. Annoyingly, he appears to have superior equipment, and the sport craves – and needs – a repeat of the competitive 2021 season when he wrestled with Lewis Hamilton throughout the year.

Formula 1 betting sites quote Verstappen on 1/3 to win in Bahrain and 1/7 to be crowned the 2024 Formula 1 World Champion. Sergio Perez, his teammate, can be backed on 12/1 to score in the season-opening race, and he gets a dismissive 33/1 quote in the World Championship betting.

Such was the magnitude of the Mexican’s long list of disappointing efforts in the second half of 2023 – when he achieved one podium in eight races while Verstappen won seven times – Perez was in threat of losing his race seat. Bet365 has taken this vast gulf in class literally, and in the season-long Verstappen-Perez battle, they quote Verstappen on 1/50 odds.

Mercedes: Lewis Hamilton and George Russell

Lewis Hamilton, the most successful Formula 1 driver of all time, stunned the sporting world when he announced he would leave Mercedes to join Ferrari at the start of the 2025 season. Winless for two full seasons, the seven-time World Champion may now lose his status as Mercedes’s number one and that will make things challenging in 2024.

The bet365 sportsbook appears convinced that George Russell will be given preferential treatment at Mercedes during the season ahead. While George Russell is quoted in five driver head-to-head markets – against Leclerc, Sainz, Alonso, Piastri, and Norris – no market is available for him to outscore Hamilton at the season’s end. In 2023, Russell collected 175 World Championship points, and Hamilton scored 234.

After two years of struggling with a concept it could not master, Mercedes has revamped its car for this season ahead, and it appears to be a work in progress. “We know we’ve got work to do, and we’re not yet where we want to be,” said Hamilton after pre-season testing.

Debriefing a positive test for the Team with our Trackside Engineering Director, Shov 💪 pic.twitter.com/BUK8bX1NId

— Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team (@MercedesAMGF1) February 23, 2024

“We knew that would be the case coming into the test, though. We’ve got a great platform to build on. We’ll go away and work hard over the next couple of days to go through all the data from the test. I’m really excited for the start of the season next week, and we’ll be heading into it in good shape.”

Bookmakers quote Hamilton on 1/3 to win a race in 2024 and make Russell 8/13 to stand on the podium’s top step. The duo are 16/1 and 33/1 in the World Drivers’ Championship betting. Neither proposition makes much appeal at those odds.

Ferrari: Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc

Knowing Lewis Hamilton is taking his race seat at the start of 2025, Carlos Sainz will be in no mood for compromise during the year ahead. And, if the form indicators from pre-season testing are correct, it is a seat that can be expected to claim podium finishes during the early part of the 2024 season.

Heading into the opening race of 2024, Charles Leclerc is 12/1 second favourite in the World Drivers’ Championship betting. Sainz, on 25/1, is the fifth name down the list. Like Hamilton, his departure means he may be closed out of the team’s inner secrets. The Spaniard could also be used as a buffer to help Leclerc achieve maximum points on a race-on-race basis.

Historically, Ferrari has never been ashamed to use one of its drivers as a sacrificial lamb to help the cause of its designated number one. Just ask Eddie Irvine, Felipe Massa, and Rubens Barrichello! Is the same now in store for Sainz?

In fairness, everything suggests that Charles Leclerc is the better driver of the pair, and he is on a long-term contract with the Italian team. Formula 1 betting sites offer 11/10 on Leclerc winning two or more races this season. It is far more attractive than the 1/3 offered on Perez achieving the same feat.

McLaren: Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri

Piastri started slowly with McLaren in his Formula 1 debut year but ended 2023 on a high. Further improvement – which is entirely possible – means he should have a good battle with Norris in 2024, providing team orders do not result in a definitive number-one driver being appointed.

The best betting sites believe Morris will end the season above Piastri in the World Drivers’ Championship standings. He is 1/4, and Piastri can be backed on 11/4. While the betting favourite outscored his rival by a ratio of more than two-to-one, Piastri still appeals at the prices.

Worryingly, with several glitches and gremlins for the car over the three days, McLaren only logged 328 laps in testing. It placed them ninth of the ten teams on the ‘laps completed’ standings. But the team started 2023 on the back foot before making significant progress during the year.

McLaren battled and eventually beat Aston Martin to finish fourth behind Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari in the 2023 World Constructors’ Championship standings. More of the same, or even better is predicted in 2024. William Hill bookmakers quote McLaren on 9/1 in the 2024 World Constructors’ Championship. That is the same price as Mercedes and only two points bigger than Ferrari.

Aston Martin: Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll

Veteran Fernando Alonso, a two-time World Champion, could be headed to Mercedes at the end of the season. In most teams, that could be a problem. But, with Alonso claiming eight podiums in 2024 and Stroll – the team owner’s son – failing to collect any silverware, Aston Martin cannot afford to give Alonso the cold shoulder.

It was just a test. 🤫#F1Testing pic.twitter.com/sOyjHjg82L

— Aston Martin Aramco F1 Team (@AstonMartinF1) February 24, 2024

This week, Formula 1’s official site reported: “Last year’s pre-season test session was a delight for Aston Martin, the green cars emerging as a shock rival to class-leaders Red Bull. They’ve maintained a lower profile this year. However, team boss Mike Krack reckons they have taken a step forward over the winter, adding they have delivered gains and performance in key areas.”

However, the same site declares: “They [Aston Martin] are around four-tenths of a second per lap adrift of Red Bull according to the numbers our data team crunched from Friday, putting them in P4. So, while it’s not as exciting as last year, they remain firmly in the fight.”

A big drifter in the betting following testing, Aston Martin is 66/1 in the World Constructors’ Championship betting and a dismissive 25/1 in the ‘without the favourite’ (Red Bull) market. Alonso is 1/8 to outscore his teammate in the end-of-season standings, and he is 13/8 to win a race in 2024.

Formula 1s 2024 Full Race Calendar

*Saturday race. **Sprint race weekend.

Alpine: Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly

Two French drivers – that don’t particularly like each other – in the same French team. That is some recipe! Both Gasly and Ocon can be backed on 20/1 to win a race in 2024, and that is understandable given their underpowered Alpine cars are reportedly lagging far behind rivals in the horsepower stakes.

Testing data suggests Alpine is over a second of a lap shy of Red Bull’s race pace, and F1’s official website places the team eighth in its predicted performance standings. Understandably, the team is 500/1 to win the World Constructors’ Championship, and it would appear Alpine will be battling Sauber, Williams and maybe RB for crumbs at race weekends.

Impressively, both Alpine drivers took a single third-placed finish during 2023, and just four points separated the pair in the final standings. Gasly came out on top. However, as he suffered just one retirement during the season and Ocon failed to see the chequered flag six times, we believe Ocon was the better driver.

Bet365 quotes the duo on 5/6 apiece in its 2024 season-long driver match betting. In our opinion, Ocon represents outstanding value in this head-to-head market. Amongst all the early Formula 1 betting markets, this is the best bet of all.

Williams: Logan Sargeant and Alex Albon

Albon, one of several Red Bull castoffs, was outstanding in 2023, and his Williams team, under its new boss, James Vowles, finished the season on an upward curve. However, pre-season testing was massively disappointing for the team. Fuel pump and driveshaft issues (amongst others) meant Williams managed to complete the fewest laps in testing.

Williams only managed 299 laps at the 5.4 kilometres Bahrain Circuit during testing. Will both its cars complete the 57-lap season-opening race at the same venue? ©MercedesF1

And what the team showed placed it only ninth in the pecking order, just ahead of Haas. Williams is now 1,000/1 in the Championship betting. Albon is understandably 1/8 to finish ahead of Sargeant in the end-of-season standings. In 2023, a single tenth-placed finish gave Sargeant his only World Championship point. Albon scored 27.

RB: Yuki Tsunoda and Daniel Ricciardo

Ricciardo will try to outshine Tsunoda and hope Perez under-performs at Red Bull – meaning he could recapture his seat in the sport’s leading team. Ricciardo is the only driver to have successfully traded punches with Verstappen in equal machinery, and that means he should put Tsunoda into the shade in 2024.

The Australian with the big smile is 8/13 to outscore Tsunoda over the course of the season. If his Red Bull employers switch around or drop its drivers – something they have done in the past with, wait for it, Christian Klien, Scott Speed, Sebastien Bourdais, Daniil Kvyat, Pierre Gasly and Nyck de Vries – then Ricciardo could find himself back in the hot seat alongside Max Verstappen. How would you like some 8/13 about him outscoring Tsunoda, then?

Overall, the RB Formula 1 Team – formerly known as Toro Rosso and Alpha Tauri and now officially called Visa Cash App RB Formula One Team – looked good in testing. Its car recorded the fifth fastest time over the three days. It will not win the World Championship, but at 500/1, odds compilers suggest the team will finish ahead of many rivals.

Some analysts believe the RB will prove itself to be the fifth fastest car in qualifying trim and sixth fastest in terms of race pace in the opening race of 2024. Ricciardo will need a mountain of luck to land the 9/1 odds on him winning a race during 2024 (Tsunoda is 40/1), but a podium finish could happen.

Sauber: Zhou Guanyu and Valtteri Bottas

Bottas is the proverbial ‘old reliable’. His 24-year-old teammate, Zhou Guanyu, from the potentially enormous Formula 1 market of China, comes with questionable form. Over six years, his one hundred sixty-two race starts in Formula 2 and Formula 3 produced just seven race wins.

A good feeling 💚🖤@ZhouGuanyu24 pic.twitter.com/GCFi5gbEjA

— Stake F1 Team Kick Sauber (@stakef1team_ks) February 23, 2024

Eighth is the best Zhou has achieved during two seasons in Formula 1, and he has been heavily outpointed by Bottas both years. It is 1/4 that Bottas outscores Guanyu once again. Odds on the Sauber team – which is being groomed for a takeover by Audi in 2026 – taking the World Championship have little relevance, as top-six finishes are the best it can realistically hope for in any 2024 race.

Haas: Kevin Magnussen and Nico Hulkenberg

Perennial backmarker team Haas has a new team principle for 2024, but if the evidence of pre-season testing is to be believed, its fortunes have not changed. The American team appears 1.5 seconds adrift of Red Bull in race simulations. It also trails the pack by some margin.

Nico Hulkenberg finished ahead of Magnussen in the 2023 World Drivers’ Championship standings, outscoring his rival by nine points to three. But was he the better driver? From a betting perspective, Formula 1 betting sites may have taken 2023’s results too literally and given punters a good opportunity on this prop bet.

Hulkenberg’s points haul came courtesy of a very fortunate seventh in the Australian Grand Prix and sixth in a Sprint contest in Austria. Despite what the points suggest, Kevin Magnussen arguably outperformed his teammate as he took points in three individual races. Furthermore, the Dane suffered three retirements compared to Hulkenberg’s one.

At 7/4, Kevin Magnussen – a driver who has never repeated or bettered the second place he earned on his first Formula 1 outing in 2014 – appears to be over-priced. He is our second confident season-long Formula 1 tip ahead of 24 races and six accompanying Sprint contests.