Kentucky Derby Betting: Horses Must Run For the Roses
The Kentucky Derby, traditionally staged on the first Saturday of May, will have a record $5 million purse in 2024. The first leg of the fabled Triple Crown and staged at Churchill Downs, the race is affectionately known as ‘The Run for the Roses’ – a consequence of the winning horse being draped in a blanket of roses.
Lasting approximately two minutes, the 10-furlong race is also described as ‘The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports’. Unquestionably, America’s most prestigious horse race, the Kentucky Derby, has been run every year since 1875. In 2023, over 150,000 trackside spectators watched Mage – 152/10 locally but 20/1 with the UK’s horse racing betting sites – take the contest by a length.
Capturing the Roses: Jockey Sonny Leon celebrates winning the 2022 Kentucky Derby aboard Rich Strike. ©GettyImages
Unsurprisingly, every prominent owner wants to win the Kentucky Derby. In fact, every nation wants to win the Churchill Downs feature. Despite numerous attempts, there has never been a European-trained winner. In 1986, Bold Arrangement came closest, finishing second to Ferdinand.
Points Offer the Prize of a Post in the Kentucky Derby
Getting a place in the Kentucky Derby field is almost as difficult as winning the contest itself. A complex system is used to determine the final field of 20 runners. Called the 2024 Road to the Kentucky Derby, major stepping-stone races award points to winners and place-getters.
With two exceptions, only the highest horses on the Road to the Kentucky Derby list will be eligible to run in the contest that boasts a $3.1 million winner’s prize. The exceptions are spots in the field taken from separate points charts for horses that hail from Japan and Europe.
The bigger the races won by candidates ahead of the Kentucky Derby, the more points they will garner. But it is not unusual for a runner to book its place in the Run for the Roses courtesy of several placed efforts in smaller contests.
The system made its debut in 2012 and replaced a selection process based on earnings from all graded stakes races – including inappropriate sprints and turf races. It is not as confusing as it may initially appear. Here, we break down the new structure, which, in turn, can help narrow the field when trying to pinpoint the next Kentucky Derby winner.
Points for Those Early on the Road
Ahead of the 2024 Kentucky Derby, 11-two-year-old races carried Road to the Kentucky Derby points. Winners of the Breeders’ Cup Futurity, the Street Sense Stakes, the Champagne Stakes, the Gun Runner Stakes and other selected contests collected 10 points each. Runner-ups netted five points; third, fourth and fifth earned three, two and one point.
The only exception was the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Here, the Todd Pletcher-trained Fierceness collected 30 points for taking the $2 million race. Muth, Locked, Timberlake and Prince of Monaco were awarded 15, 9, 6 and 3 points for chasing him home.
But it is at the turn of the year when owners and trainers truly chase the points that can give their pride and joy a place in the Run for the Roses. January’s Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds is the first Road to the Kentucky Derby race for three-year-olds. It is one of eight races that come with a 20-10-6-4-2 points structure.
Other prep races are Oaklawn Park’s €800,000 Southwest Stakes, February’s Holy Bull, Robert B. Lewis, Withers, Sam F. Davis Stakes and Sunland Derby, plus the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at the start of March.
Fifty Points Can Buy a Derby Ticket
Six races have a 50-25-15-10-5 point structure and a handsome financial prize. They are the $1.25 million Rebel Stakes, the Grade-2 Risen Star, Fountain of Youth, the San Felipe Stakes, the Tampa Derby and Grade-3 Gotham Stakes.
In 2023, nine of the Kentucky Derby acceptors earned their place in the race with 50 points or less. Its winner, Mage, brought exactly 50 points into the race. They were gathered by finishing fourth in the Fountain of Youth (for ten points) and second in the Florida Derby (40 points).
This year, amongst subtle changes, second-place points in all qualifying races have been increased to create added separation from second and third-place finishers. It means winners of the significant trials are worth 100 points to the winner, 50 points go to seconds, and then 25, 15 and 10 points are awarded down to fifth.
100 Points Will Hit the Target
The major prep races – which throw up the bulk of Kentucky Derby winners – are the Grade-1 Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby, Santa Anita Derby and Blue Grass Stakes. Grade-2 contests, the Louisiana Derby, UAE Derby and Wood Memorial, are also worth 100 points to the winner, as is the Grade-3 Jeff Ruby Stakes run at Turfway Park.
In 2023, eight horses amassed 100 points or more in the Road to the Kentucky Derby standings. Of these, only five took part in the contest. Forte and Practical Move – the highest points getters – were among the absentees. In the event, Two Phil’s (123 points) and Angel of Empire (154) chased Mage home.
Recent Winners Best Result Before Running in the Derby
| 2023 | Mage | Second in the Florida Derby |
| 2022 | Rich Strike | Third in the Jeff Ruby Stakes |
| 2021 | Mandaloun | Won the Risen Star Stakes |
| 2020 | Authentic | Won the Haskell Stakes |
| 2019 | Country House | Second in the Risen Star Stakes |
| 2018 | Justify | Won the Santa Anita Derby |
| 2017 | Always Dreaming | Won the Florida Derby |
| 2016 | Nyquist | Won the Florida Derby |
| 2015 | American Pharoah | Won the Arkansas Derby |
| 2014 | California Chrome | Won Santa Anita Derby |
Tickets for Europe and Japan
Derby organisers have two spots set aside for horses trained in Europe and Japan in 2024. Their route to the Run for the Roses is similar to that of their American counterparts. To guarantee a place in the field, horses must amass the most points from the designated European Road to the Kentucky Derby and Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby races.
The European series consists of seven races: four on the turf in late 2023 (for two-year-olds) and three races run on a synthetic surface in early 2024. Five contests are in the UK, one in Dundalk, Ireland and another in Longchamp, France. From a points perspective, the Cardinal Stakes at Chelmsford is the most valuable.
If none of the top four horses on the final points standings accept a spot in the Kentucky Derby field, the place in the starting gate reverts to the horses on the main American Road to the Derby list.
Japan’s Road to the Kentucky Derby is a four-race series. Amante Bianco earned 10 points when winning November’s Cattleya Sho at Tokyo Racecourse. Forever Young claimed 20 points when taking December’s Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun over a mile at Kawasaki Racecourse.
The Hyacinth Stakes at Tokyo in February has a 30-15-9-6-3 format. In March, Nakayama Racecourse stages the final and most significant Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby prep. Its Fukuryu Stakes is worth circa £95,000 and carries a carrot of 40-20-12-8-4 points.
Post Draw Will Change the Betting
In a 20-runner field, a low starting gate is massively advantageous. Horse racing history shows starting from post positions five and eight have been the most fruitful, winning ten times apiece. No Kentucky Derby winner has ever sprung from gate number 17.
1986 winner Ferdinand was the last winner from the inside berth. But eight winners have started from the one-gate in total. Similarly, there have been seven winners from the two-path – the last being Triple Crown winner, Affirmed in 1978.
The draw for post positions takes place on the Monday evening before the Derby. It will result in some dramatic Kentucky Derby betting price changes. The odds on those drawn 16 or higher – where just nine previous winners have started – will inevitably drift significantly.
