Joshua vs Ngannou: Epic Showdown – Fight Preview & Odds

by Luke Andrews, 18 January 2024

The much-anticipated bout between Anthony Joshua and Francis Ngannou is set for Friday, March 8. This exciting news comes after the announcement earlier in the month that the ex-world heavyweight champions from boxing and UFC, respectively, will clash in a ten-round boxing match in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Our resident sports expert, Luke Andrews, previews the fight and shares the latest Anthony Joshua vs Francis Ngannou betting odds.

The official date for the showdown was set on Monday (January 15), as the two fighters came face-to-face for the first time during their inaugural press conference.

Francis Ngannou stepped into the boxing ring for the first time against Tyson Fury last October, in a match organised by His Excellency Turki Alalshikh, the chairman of Saudi Arabia’s General Entertainment Authority (GEA).

In a stunning turn of events, the MMA star knocked down the WBC heavyweight world champion in the third round, ultimately losing by a close split decision. Several pundits, myself included, thought Ngannou had done enough to win the fight.

Before this, Anthony Joshua had brushed off the idea of a ‘gimmick’ match with Ngannou, focusing instead on a fight with Deontay Wilder.

Ngannou’s impressive showing against Fury actually paved the way for Joshua to become part of the Saudi event.

The unexpected delay of Tyson Fury’s ultimate clash with Oleksandr Usyk, originally scheduled for December 23 but moved to February 17 due to Fury being knocked down, changed the course of events.

Consequently, both AJ and Deontay Wilder were approached by the GEA, and they agreed to fight on December 23, with a follow-up bout planned for March.

While Joshua triumphed over Otto Wallin, Wilder’s defeat to Joseph Parker disrupted these initial plans.

First face off 🥊

Joshua Vs Ngannou 🔥#KnockoutChaos #Riyadh pic.twitter.com/zLr2cja2RQ

— Combat Sports 24/7 (@SugaShowMMA_) January 15, 2024

As a result, AJ and Ngannou have now agreed to a match on March 8, with the winner set to challenge the victor of Fury vs Usyk for all the heavyweight titles.

In the co-main event of Joshua vs Ngannou, Zhilei Zhang will take on Joseph Parker in a major heavyweight clash for Zhang’s WBO ‘interim’ title.

Zhilei Zhang vs. Joseph Parker is 50/50 fight with massive stakes pic.twitter.com/wY5CQyuDJM

— Dan Canobbio (@DanCanobbio) January 17, 2024

Additionally, the event will see Rey Vargas defending his WBC featherweight world title against Nick Ball and Mark Chamberlain squaring off against Gavin Gwynne.

Tyson Fury’s younger sibling, Roman Fury, will also participate in his fourth professional bout on the undercard.

Appearances from Justis Huni, Ziyad Almaayouf, and Jack McGann further bolster the lineup.

A Final Chance of Redemption for AJ?

Like many boxing fans, I’ve followed Anthony Joshua’s career for over a decade, first becoming aware of his talents when he beat Erik Pfeifer, who would later become the WBO European heavyweight title holder, in the semi-final of the 2011 World Amateur Boxing Championships at Super heavyweight in 2011. Although AJ lost narrowly to Magomedrasul Majidov in that final,

Joshua’s raw talent was there for all to see. A year later, the then 23-year-old found national fame by winning gold for Great Britain at the 2012 Olympics.

OTD in 2012, Anthony Joshua won Olympic gold and the journey began 👏 pic.twitter.com/Lw3nkMUPUa

— DAZN Boxing (@DAZNBoxing) August 12, 2021

The youngster turned professional a year later, and quite rightly, his reputation grew with each opponent he floored.

Joshua’s early professional career was sensational, with 20 knockouts in a row. Emanuele Leo, Paul Butlin, Hrvoje Kisicek, Dorian Darch, Hector Alfredo Avila, Matt Legg, Matt Skelton, Konstantin Airich, Denis Bakhtov, Michael Sprott, Jason Gavern, Raphael Zumbano, Kevin Johnson, Gary Cornish, Dillian Whyte, Charles Martin, Dominic Breazeale, Eric Molina, Wladimir Klitschko and Carlos Takam were all beaten by KO or TKO.

Although AJ’s KO run ended in the fight against the previously unbeaten Joseph Parker (24-0-0), the judges scored the fight 118-110, 118-110, and 119-109 in his favour meaning he added the IBO World heavyweight title, and the WBO World heavyweight title to the WBA Super World heavyweight title (2nd defence) and IBF World heavyweight title (5th defence by Joshua) he held.

AJ won his next fight against Alexander Povetkin (34-1-0). The fight was tightly contested, with the scorecards showing 59-55, 58-56, and 58-56, but the Brit turned on the style in the 7th, knocking down the Russian twice before the referee stepped in.

Seemingly invincible, many pundits expected Joshua to claim all the belts and reign long in the heavyweight division. However, he suffered a stunning defeat in his next fight against Andy Ruiz at Madison Square Garden, New York on June 1, 2019. AJ started the fight well, knocking down the challenger in the 3rd round, but he suffered four knockdowns, twice in the 3rd round and twice in the 7th round.

Although he did win the rematch on decision six months later, he lost the air of invincibility, and questions were raised over his chin. He did, however, see off the Bulgarian Kubrat Pulev, who had only suffered one defeat in his career (Wladimir Klitschko), in his next fight.

After suffering a title loss to Usyk in 2021 and experiencing a subsequent defeat in their rematch nearly a year afterward, Joshua has bounced back with a trio of consecutive wins. His latest triumph, a commanding stoppage win against Otto Wallin in Saudi Arabia last December, has rekindled aspirations that the 34-year-old might clinch the world champion title for a third stint.

Yet, in what seems to be an acknowledgment of his ongoing ambition for a major British showdown with Fury, Joshua has indicated that reclaiming the world championship title is not his primary driving force.

“I’m not really too concerned about the world. I’m trying to conquer where I live. I just want to conquer here and make everyone know I’m the one who puts boxing on the map.” – Anthony Joshua, former heavyweight champion of the world.

Francis Ngannou – From UFC to Boxing

Francis Ngannou embarked on his professional mixed martial arts career in November 2013, primarily competing in the French promotion 100% Fight and other European regional promotions. He amassed a record of 5–1 before joining the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC)^[2].

In his UFC debut on December 19, 2015, at UFC on Fox 17, Ngannou faced Luis Henrique, winning by knockout in the second round. He continued his UFC journey by defeating newcomer Curtis Blaydes at UFC Fight Night 86 on April 10, 2016, through a TKO due to doctor stoppage at the end of the second round.

Ngannou’s subsequent fights included victories over newcomers Bojan Mihajlović and Anthony Hamilton, earning his first UFC Performance of the Night bonus for the latter. He then triumphed over Andrei Arlovski at UFC on Fox 23, securing another Performance of the Night bonus.

A planned bout with Junior dos Santos at UFC 215 was canceled due to dos Santos’ potential USADA violation. Ngannou’s high-profile fight against Alistair Overeem at UFC 218 resulted in a first-round knockout, hailed as one of the most brutal in history. Post-fight, Ngannou signed an eight-fight contract with the UFC.

Ngannou faced Stipe Miocic for the UFC Heavyweight Championship at UFC 220 but lost via unanimous decision. A subsequent fight against Derrick Lewis at UFC 226 was criticised for lack of offense and labeled a “snoozefest.”

On January 14, 2023, Francis Ngannou was stripped of the UFC Heavyweight Championship following a stalemate in contract negotiations with the UFC. His contract had lapsed in mid-December, and despite discussions, the two sides failed to reach a consensus, leading the UFC to relinquish its matching rights clause.

This decision rendered Ngannou an unrestricted free agent. In a candid conversation with Ariel Helwani, Ngannou revealed his demands during negotiations included health insurance, sponsorship opportunities for all UFC fighters, and the presence of a fighter advocate during contract talks. His requests, however, were not met, prompting his decision not to renew his contract with the UFC. This move marked Ngannou as the first reigning champion to exit the UFC since B.J. Penn in 2004.

As a result, Ngannou declared he was turning his attention to boxing, stating he wanted to fight either Tyson Fury or Deontay Wilder. Tyson took the bait, and a fight was arranged towards the end of 2023.

Francis Ngannou Scares Fury in Boxing Debut

In an unexpected twist, Tyson Fury overcame a knockdown in the third round to narrowly defeat Francis Ngannou by split decision on Saturday, October 28, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Waitin on UFC 300 News or Fight Night !!

In The Mean Time , Here's The Most Significant Strikes Thrown in ;

Francis Ngannou Vs Tyson Fury 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/OISXcSN81O

— MMA WIZZ 🥷 (@themmawiz) January 13, 2024

The judges’ scores were divided, with one favouring Ngannou 95-94 but two others scoring 96-93 and 95-94 for Fury. The WBC heavyweight title, held by Fury, was not at stake in this 10-round boxing match.

Ngannou, 37, originally from Cameroon, was making his professional boxing debut, having last fought in January 2022. Fury, 35, from Manchester, England, entered the match as a heavy favourite, with Ngannou being priced as high as 14/1 odds.

Many, myself included, dismissed the challenge of Ngannou, and expected an exhibition bout in which Fury would earn an easy payday.

However, the truth of the matter is that Ngannou wasn’t only a match for Fury, he had the World Boxing Council (WBC) heavyweight champion of the world on the canvas and can count himself unlucky that the judges scoring went against him. If he can perform similarly against AJ, a victory is certainly not out of the question.

Betting on Anthony Joshua v Francis Ngannou

In this next section, I’ll present the latest Anthony Joshua v Francis Ngannou betting odds for round betting, group round betting, distance betting, and method of victory betting.

Anthony Joshua v Francis Ngannou – Round Betting

The ultimate test of skill when betting on boxing is predicting the exact round when the fight will end. In the heavyweight division, one punch can end the fight, making it tricky to back the correct outcome correctly.

The odds table for the fight outcome in round betting presents various scenarios for how the fight might conclude. For Anthony Joshua, the odds are more favourable in the earlier rounds, with a 11/2 chance of winning in round 4, gradually increasing to 16/1 in round 8. The likelihood of Joshua winning in the first round is set at 10/1, indicating a less probable outcome compared to the middle rounds.

Francis Ngannou’s chances are perceived as less likely across all rounds. His odds of winning the fight peak at 22/1 in rounds 2 and 3, and escalate to a high of 90/1 in round 10, suggesting a significantly lower probability of victory as the fight progresses. The odds for a draw in the match are set at 20/1, indicating a less expected outcome than either fighter winning in specific rounds.

Anthony Joshua v Francis Ngannou – Group Round Betting

If, like me, you like to bet on a gut feeling, you might want to consider group-round betting. You get to choose two rounds rather than one, giving you effectively a double chance to win. However, as the risk is lower, so are the odds.

In this round betting odds table, the chances of each fighter winning the fight are grouped by round ranges. For Anthony Joshua, the odds are more favourable in the earlier rounds. He has a 11/4 chance of winning between rounds 3-4, which is seen as the most likely scenario for his victory. The odds then increase to 4/1 for both rounds 1-2 and 5-6, suggesting these are less probable but still significant possibilities. The likelihood of Joshua winning in the later rounds, rounds 7-8, is set at 15/2, and further increases to 16/1 for Rounds 9-10, indicating a decreasing probability of victory as the fight progresses.

Francis Ngannou’s odds of winning in any of the round ranges are less favourable compared to Joshua. His chances peak at 13/1 for both rounds 1-2 and 3-4, suggesting these are the most likely rounds for his victory, which isn’t surprising with the punching power he brings. The odds for Ngannou winning in rounds 5-6 are set at 22/1, and they escalate to 25/1 for rounds 7-8. In the latest rounds, rounds 9-10, his chances are at their lowest, marked at 35/1, indicating a significantly reduced likelihood of winning as the fight nears its end.

Anthony Joshua v Francis Ngannou – Will the Fight Goes the Distance?

The heavyweight division is all about the knockouts; therefore, there will be plenty of interest in betting on whether the fight will last the scheduled ten rounds.

This betting odds table focuses on whether the fight will go the distance, meaning whether it will last until the scheduled end without a knockout or technical knockout.

The odds for the fight not going the distance, indicated as “No,” are set at 2/11. This suggests a high probability that the fight will conclude before reaching its scheduled endpoint, as these odds imply a strong expectation of an earlier finish. That is no surprise, as both fighters are renowned for their punching power. AJ knocked down his first twenty opponents in his professional career, and Ngannou has been recognised as having the most powerful punch in the world.

Conversely, the odds for the fight going the full distance, marked as “Yes,” are at 9/2. These longer odds indicate a lower probability of the battle lasting until the scheduled end without a decisive victory. This suggests that the expectation for an early conclusion to the fight is more favoured among the oddsmakers.

Anthony Joshua v Francis Ngannou – Method of Victory Odds

A popular market when boxing betting, is predicting how the fight will be decided.

The most anticipated outcome, according to oddsmakers, is Anthony Joshua securing a victory through KO (Knockout), TKO (Technical Knockout), or Disqualification, with the odds favoring this result at 4/9. This implies a strong consensus among betting experts that Joshua is more likely to win the bout through a decisive action rather than a decision based on points.

Conversely, the likelihood of Francis Ngannou winning by KO, TKO, or Disqualification is perceived as less probable, with odds positioned at 5/1. This suggests that while there’s a chance for Ngannou to triumph through a knockout or similar means, it is deemed a less likely scenario compared to Joshua achieving a similar outcome.

The possibility of Anthony Joshua winning by Decision or Technical Decision is offered at odds of 7/1, indicating that while a points-based victory for Joshua is within the realm of possibility, it is not the most expected outcome.

A draw, representing an evenly matched contest resulting in no clear victor, is deemed quite improbable, with odds standing at 20/1. This reflects the general anticipation of a decisive conclusion to the fight.

Lastly, the odds of Francis Ngannou claiming victory through Decision or Technical Decision are set at 22/1, marking it as the least likely outcome. This points to a widespread belief among oddsmakers that a points-based win for Ngannou is highly unlikely.

That said, Ngannou defied the odds by going the distance against Fury, so I wouldn’t be as quick to dismiss the possibility this time around.

When and Where is the Anthony Joshua v Francis Ngannou Fight?

Joshua is scheduled to go head-to-head with Ngannou on Friday, March 8, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia^[3]. This heavyweight clash, spanning ten rounds, is set to unfold at the Kingdom Arena.

Originally planned for Saturday, the bout has been rescheduled to Friday due to the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix taking place on the weekend.

Details regarding the exact timing of the event will be announced later. However, the preliminary bouts are anticipated to commence at 6pm, leading up to the main event’s ringwalks, which are expected around 10:30 pm UK time.

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