Leeds United vs Aston Villa Bet Builder Predictions

by Luke Andrews, 21 November 2025

Leeds United vs Aston Villa at Elland Road on Sunday promises a tight, tactical Premier League encounter. Our football betting expert has analysed the latest data, including significant team news updates, and foresees a narrow away victory, identifying value in Aston Villa to Win, Both Teams to Score ‘No’, and a 1-0 Correct Score.at the best betting sites.

Betting Analysis & Expert Picks

The narrative of this match has shifted significantly with breaking team news. Leeds United, already reeling from four defeats in their last five games, have been dealt a massive blow: key attacker Wilfried Gnonto has undergone a minor operation and is ruled out until 2026. This strips an already “Very Weak” finishing side of its primary creative spark.

Aston Villa arrive in 6th place, but with a clear dichotomy in their form. At home, they are imperious; away, they have won just once and scored only three goals in five matches. However, they face a Leeds defence that has conceded at least two goals in five of their last six matches.

While Villa have their own injury concern with midfielder Amadou Onana ruled out for six weeks, their depth is superior. The “Statistical Preview” highlights Villa’s dominance in this fixture (winning 5 of the last 6 meetings). With Leeds’ attack blunted by Gnonto’s absence and Villa’s tendency for low-scoring away games, a single goal could decide this.

Our football betting tips for Leeds United vs Aston Villa are:

Best Bet: Aston Villa to Win (29/20)

Justification: Despite their away struggles, Villa are the superior side facing a Leeds team in freefall (4 losses in 5). The news of Gnonto’s long-term absence significantly reduces Leeds’ threat. Villa have won 5 of the last 6 meetings, making 29/20 excellent value against a relegation-threatened host.

Value Prop: Both Teams to Score ‘No’ (10/11) Justification: Villa have scored just 3 goals in 5 away games, often prioritising solidity on the road. Leeds have failed to score in 20% of their games and, critically, are now missing their most dangerous forward (Gnonto). A 1-0 or 2-0 Villa win fits the data perfectly.

Longshot: Correct Score 0-1 (13/2) Justification: This aligns with Villa’s statistical profile away from home (low scoring, tight margins) and Leeds’ inability to finish chances. The preview predicts a tight affair, and 0-1 is the most logical outcome given Villa’s lack of away goals (0.60 per game) combined with their defensive quality.

Bet Builder Selection

For those seeking higher returns, a Bet Builder offers a way to combine our analysis into a single wager. We’ve compiled a three-leg bet that aligns perfectly with the latest team news.

Aston Villa – Draw No Bet (4/6): Justification: Villa are unbeaten in their last six H2H meetings. With Leeds missing Gnonto and in poor form, it is difficult to see a home win here.

Under 2.5 Goals (8/11): Justification: Villa average just 0.60 goals scored per away game. Leeds struggle to convert chances (“Very Weak” finishing). This has all the makings of a low-scoring tactical battle.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin to have 1+ Shots on Target (Odds Varies): Justification: With Gnonto out, the returning Calvert-Lewin becomes the focal point of Leeds’ attack. Even in a losing effort, he will be the target for set-pieces and crosses. Combining these three selections creates a compelling Bet Builder with total odds of approx 4/1.

Match-Up at a Glance

This table provides the essential match details and our top-line expert predictions for the upcoming clash.

The Tale of the Tape: Form & Statistical H2H

The core of our betting analysis lies in comparing the two sides’ current form and key performance metrics. Note the stark contrast in recent form.

Team News & Strategic Impact

Leeds United’s preparation has been disrupted by significant injury news. While Dominic Calvert-Lewin is expected to return to the starting XI, the major blow is Wilfried Gnonto. Previously thought to be returning, updated reports confirm he has had a minor operation and is ruled out until 2026. This leaves Leeds without their most dynamic creator against a strong Villa side. Harry Gray is fit again.

Leeds United Absences:

• Wilfried Gnonto (Operation): Huge loss. His creativity was crucial for a team that already struggles to finish.
• Ethan Ampadu (Knee): Continues to be sidelined.

Aston Villa also have a major absentee. Midfielder Amadou Onana has been ruled out for six weeks with a hamstring problem. This weakens their midfield shield, but they have depth in Youri Tielemans (though listed as ‘Out’ in one table, he is not mentioned in the text summary of injuries, unlike Onana and Mings). Ezri Konsa is expected to be fit despite a tight calf, while Matty Cash will be assessed.

Aston Villa Absences:

• Amadou Onana (Hamstring): Ruled out for 6 weeks. A blow to their physical presence in midfield.
• Tyrone Mings (Thigh): Ruled out for the trip.
• Andres Garcia (Injury): Also ruled out.

Popular Odds Hub

Here is a selection of popular market odds for Leeds United vs Aston Villa, provided for your reference.

This match is now a test of Leeds’ resilience without their star man Gnonto, versus a Villa side looking to translate their imperious home form into points on the road. For more expert analysis and daily tips, visit our main betting tips section.