Burnley vs Chelsea Bet Builder Predictions

by Luke Andrews, 18 November 2025

Burnley vs Chelsea at Turf Moor on Saturday presents a fascinating Premier League encounter as domestic football returns. Our football betting expert has analysed the data and foresees a high-scoring away win, identifying value in Chelsea to Win, Chelsea to Win & Both Teams to Score, and a 1-2 Correct Score at the best betting sites.

Betting Analysis & Expert Picks

This match presents a stark contrast in form and firepower. Chelsea arrive at Turf Moor third in the table and flying, having recorded back-to-back wins and consecutive clean sheets, culminating in a dominant 3-0 victory over Wolves.

Burnley, meanwhile, are languishing in 17th and come into this fixture off the back of a morale-damaging 3-2 defeat to relegation rivals West Ham, a match where goalkeeper Martin Dubravka was at fault for two goals.

The statistical gulf in the ‘Tale of the Tape’ is stark, particularly in attack. Chelsea are a force of nature on the road, averaging 2.40 goals per game and, crucially, have not failed to score in a single away league match this season. They average 13 shots per game away from home. Burnley, by contrast, are defensively solid on paper at Turf Moor (0.80 goals conceded), but their underlying numbers are deeply worrying, managing just 5.80 shots per game at home.

While Chelsea’s lengthy injury list—particularly the 50/50 doubts over Enzo Fernandez and Pedro Neto – would normally level the playing field, their squad depth and rampant form should be enough to overcome a fragile Burnley side.

The head-to-head record is just as one-sided, with Chelsea unbeaten in the last six league meetings.

Our football betting tips for Burnley vs Chelsea are:

Best Bet: Chelsea to Win (8/15) Justification: The disparity in form and quality is too large to ignore. Chelsea’s 2.00 Away PPG dwarfs Burnley’s 1.40 Home PPG. The visitors are 3rd, the hosts 17th, and Chelsea have won four and drawn two of the last six meetings.

Value Prop: Chelsea to Win & Both Teams to Score (9/4) Justification: This logically follows our main bet but offers significantly more value. Burnley score in 60% of their home games, while Chelsea have only kept a clean sheet in 40% of their away fixtures. Burnley’s Zian Flemming is in form, and Chelsea’s defence could be unsettled by their injury doubts.

Longshot: Correct Score 1-2 (13/2) Justification: A 1-2 final scoreline aligns perfectly with our ‘Chelsea to Win & BTTS’ value pick. It respects Burnley’s ability to find the net at home while acknowledging Chelsea’s superior firepower and their record of scoring in every single away game this season.

Bet Builder Selection

For those seeking higher returns, a Bet Builder offers a way to combine our analysis into a single wager. We’ve compiled a three-leg bet that aligns perfectly with our match forecast.

Chelsea to Win (8/15): Justification: This is the foundation of our bet, based on the clear statistical dominance outlined in the ‘Tale of the Tape’ (2.00 Away PPG vs 1.40 Home PPG).

Over 2.5 Total Goals (3/4): Justification: This correlates directly with Chelsea’s away form. A massive 80% of Chelsea’s away matches this season have featured three or more goals, and they average 2.40 goals scored on their travels.

Joao Pedro to Score Anytime (19/10): Justification: Joao Pedro is Chelsea’s joint-top scorer with four league goals. He found the net in the 3-0 win against Wolves and will be the focal point of the attack, especially with doubts over other key forwards.

Combining these three selections creates a compelling Bet Builder with total odds of 13/2. A £10 stake would return £75.

Match-Up at a Glance

This table provides the essential match details and our top-line expert predictions for the upcoming clash.

The Tale of the Tape: Form & Statistical H2H

The core of our betting analysis lies in comparing the two sides’ current form and key performance metrics. This statistical head-to-head highlights the crucial mismatches.

Team News & Strategic Impact

Burnley manager Scott Parker has his work cut out for him. The Clarets are coming off a painful 3-2 loss to West Ham, where they surrendered a 1-0 lead. Zian Flemming scored again, but the team’s defensive frailties were exposed, with keeper Martin Dubravka making costly errors for two of the goals. This second consecutive league defeat leaves them just above the drop zone.

Burnley Absences:

• Zeki Amdouni (Knee Injury): A long-term ACL injury means Burnley are without a key attacking part, though the team has had months to adjust to his absence.
• Connor Roberts (Calf/Shin/Heel Injury): The first-choice right-back is out following Achilles surgery, a significant loss of experience in defence.
• Jordan Beyer (Thigh Injury): A hamstring setback sidelines the centre-back, weakening Burnley’s defensive depth and putting pressure on the remaining defenders.

Chelsea, under Enzo Maresca, are building serious momentum. Their 3-0 dispatching of Wolves was professional and clinical, marking their second straight win and clean sheet. Malo Gusto scored his first-ever senior goal, while Alejandro Garnacho put in an impressive two-assist performance. The challenge now is to maintain this intensity amid a significant injury crisis.

Chelsea Absences:

• Enzo Fernandez (Knee Injury): A critical 50/50 doubt. He is resting a persistent knee problem, and his absence would rob Chelsea of their primary midfield controller.
• Pedro Neto (Groin/Hip/Pelvic Injury): Also a 50/50 doubt after feeling a groin issue. His potential absence would remove a major goal threat (3 goals) and pace from the attack.
• Cole Palmer (Groin/Hip/Pelvic Injury): Ruled out after not taking part in team sessions. This is a major blow, as Chelsea lose a key creator and goalscorer (1 goal).
• Levi Colwill (Knee Injury): Out long-term with an ACL injury. His absence is a massive loss for Chelsea’s defensive build-up and stability.
• Mykhailo Mudryk (Suspended): The winger is unavailable due to an ongoing anti-doping charge.
• Romeo Lavia (Thigh Injury): Remains sidelined after another injury setback, reducing defensive midfield depth.
• Dario Luis Essugo (Thigh Injury): The young midfielder is out long-term following surgery.

On a positive note for Chelsea, centre-back Benoit Badiashile is expected to be available for selection after the international break, bolstering their defensive options.

Popular Odds Hub

Here is a selection of popular market odds for Burnley vs Chelsea, provided for your reference.

This early kick-off is a crucial test of Chelsea’s title-challenging credentials and Burnley’s survival instincts. For more expert analysis and daily tips, visit our main betting tips section.