Brentford vs Burnley Bet Builder Predictions

by Luke Andrews, 25 November 2025

Brentford vs Burnley at on Saturday presents a goal-heavy Premier League encounter. Our football betting expert has analysed the data and foresees a convincing home victory, identifying value in the Match Winner, Total Goals, and Correct Score markets at the best betting sites.

Betting Analysis & Expert Picks

This match pits a Brentford side that has turned the Gtech Community Stadium into a fortress against a Burnley team that capitulates on the road. The statistical disparity in the ‘Tale of the Tape’ is glaring. Brentford boasts a formidable 2.17 Points Per Game (PPG) at home, winning 67% of their fixtures there. In stark contrast, Burnley holds a Dismal 0.50 PPG away from home, having lost 83% of their matches on the road.

The determining factor here is Burnley’s defensive collapse away from Turf Moor. They concede an alarming average of 3.00 goals per game in away fixtures. Conversely, Brentford’s attack is potent at home, averaging 2.00 goals per match. While Burnley does manage to find the net away (1.50 goals per game), their inability to keep clean sheets—recording 0% shutouts on their travels—leaves them vulnerable. With Brentford’s games averaging 3.17 goals and Burnley’s away matches averaging a staggering 4.50 goals, a high-scoring home win is the logical conclusion.

Our football betting tips for Brentford vs Burnley are:

Best Bet: Brentford to Win (1/2) Justification: The form guide is decisive. Brentford has won 4 of their 6 home games (67% win rate), while Burnley has lost 5 of their 6 away games (83% loss rate). The gap between Brentford’s 2.17 Home PPG and Burnley’s 0.50 Away PPG makes the home win the most reliable play.

Value Prop: Total Goals Over 3.5 (21/10) Justification: The stats scream goals. Burnley’s away matches average 4.50 goals per game, with the Clarets conceding 3.00 on average. Combined with Brentford’s 2.00 goals scored at home, the data supports a match exceeding the standard 2.5 line, making the 21/10 for Over 3.5 excellent value.

Longshot: Correct Score 3-1 (12/1) Justification: This scoreline perfectly reflects the averages: Brentford scoring roughly 2-3 goals and Burnley scoring their average of 1.5. Furthermore, 3-1 is Brentford’s most frequent full-time scoreline this season, occurring in 33% of their matches.

Bet Builder Selection

For those seeking higher returns, a Bet Builder offers a way to combine our analysis into a single wager. We’ve compiled a three-leg bet that aligns perfectly with our match forecast.

Brentford to Win (1/2): Justification: This is the foundation of our bet, based on the clear statistical dominance outlined in the ‘Tale of the Tape’ (2.17 Home PPG vs 0.50 Away PPG).

Both Teams to Score – Yes (10/11): Justification: Despite their poor results, Burnley consistently scores on the road (1.50 goals per game) and fails to score in only 17% of away matches. Brentford concedes 1.17 goals per game at home, suggesting a clean sheet is unlikely.

Total Goals Over 2.5 (4/5): Justification: This correlates directly with the stats. 100% of Burnley’s away games this season have seen Over 2.5 goals, driven by their leaky defence.

Combining these three selections creates a compelling Bet Builder with total odds of 5/2. A £10 stake would return £35.00.

Match-Up at a Glance

This table provides the essential match details and our top-line expert predictions for the upcoming clash.

The Tale of the Tape: Form & Statistical H2H

The core of our betting analysis lies in comparing the two sides’ current form and key performance metrics. This statistical head-to-head highlights the crucial mismatches.

Team News & Strategic Impact

Brentford enters this fixture with confidence from their strong home form, despite a recent away loss to Brighton. Their strategy will likely exploit Burnley’s leaky defence, with top scorer Igor Thiago (9 goals) leading the line. However, they face significant long-term injury issues in midfield.

Brentford Absences:

• Fabio Carvalho (Knee Injury): Out until Sep 2026. A major blow to Brentford’s creativity, as Carvalho is a key playmaker. His absence puts more creative burden on Mbeumo and Damsgaard.
• Antoni Milambo (Knee Injury): Out until Aug 2026. Another ACL injury that reduces squad depth and rotation options in the attacking midfield areas.
• Joshua Dasilva (Knee Injury): Out until Jan 2026. His long-term absence deprives the midfield of a dynamic ball-carrier and goal threat from deep.
• Yoane Wissa (Knee Injury): Out until Dec 2025. A significant loss for the forward line, reducing the team’s pace and finishing options alongside Thiago.

Burnley is in crisis mode, having lost three consecutive matches and conceding heavily on the road. Their defence is statistically the worst in this matchup, and injuries to key defensive personnel will make containing Brentford extremely difficult.

Burnley Absences:

• Zeki Amdouni (Knee Injury): Out until Apr 2026. The loss of Amdouni removes a primary attacking outlet and goal scorer, limiting Burnley’s ability to trade blows.
• Connor Roberts (Calf/Shin/Heel Injury): Out until Jan 2026. His absence weakens the right side of defence, an area Brentford’s wide players will look to exploit.
• Jordan Beyer (Thigh Injury): Out until Jan 2026. A crucial miss for the centre of defence, leaving the backline vulnerable against Brentford’s physical attack.
• Leon Chiwome (Knee Injury): No return date. Further depletes the attacking options for a team chasing goals.

Popular Odds Hub

Here is a selection of popular market odds for Brentford vs Burnley, provided for your reference.

With Brentford’s solid home form clashing against Burnley’s defensive fragility on the road, this match offers clear value for bettors backing goals and a home victory.

For more expert analysis and daily tips, visit our main betting tips section.