What Did the Bookmakers Make Of Christmas’s Big Winners?

by , 3 January 2024

There was an abundance of top-class racing on either side of the Irish Sea during the Christmas period. The action, which included 13 Grade-1 contests, kicked off with the King George VI Chase meeting at Kempton Park. A very disappointing field of just six runners met the starter in the big race.

Gavin Sheehan riding Hewick celebrates winning the 2023 Ladbrokes King George VI Chase at Kempton Park.

Gavin Sheehan celebrates King George VI Chase victory aboard Hewick. The Gold Cup awaits, but is the Grand National a better bet? ©GettyImages

Leopardstown’s bumper Christmas Festival offered more competitive action and some outstanding winners. The Coral Welsh Grand National provided its usual excitement; even the smaller meetings threw up some exciting newcomers with enormous potential.

All these races provided significant form pointers to the big spring festivals, including Cheltenham, Aintree, and Punchestown. Here, you can read about the big winners and how the Festival betting has changed.

Hewick Is Now an Irish, US and UK Hero

Hewick used his stamina to land a King George VI Chase that was run at a breakneck pace. Shishkin looked the likely winner before slipping and unseating his rider two strides after the penultimate obstacle. But the Irish-trained winner finished with such gusto that he probably would have won anyway.

“It’s straight to Cheltenham and the Gold Cup,” said Hewick’s trainer, Shark Hanlon, in the winner’s enclosure. His tiny champion ran a big race, falling two jumps from home in last season’s Gold Cup.

He may be small, but with a big heart and abundant stamina, our experts believe the 2024 Grand National would be a better and more realistic target. Grand National betting sites have Hewick quoted on 20/1 for this year’s race.

But 2025, when aged ten, might be the year he takes his chances in the marathon. History would then be against him, as the last eight National winners were nine or younger.

Whatever races Hewick contests from this day forward, he will always be deemed an inimitable people’s champion. An £800 purchase, who needed 15 starts to win a race, his resume now lists King George VI Chase and American Grand National victories contributing to £612,680 in career earnings.

The Très Bon French Novice

Earlier on Boxing Day, French challenger Il Est Francais produced a breathtaking display in the Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase. Under the French-based British rider, James Reveley, the five-year-old travelled strongly and made all to win in a time significantly faster than that set by Hewick in the King George.

Such was the impression created by the winner; in the contest’s aftermath, Paul Nicholls, who trained the well-beaten runner-up, Hermes Allen, drew comparisons with Kauto Star.

Il Est Francais will not be heading to the Cheltenham Festival – in 2024, at least. After the race, his joint trainer, Noel George, explained that May’s French Gold Cup (the Grand Steeplechase de Paris) is his principal target. The 2024 King George VI Chase is his longer-term objective.

Vega and Captain Over the Hill

Constitution Hill proved his massive engine continues to purr nicely when justifying 1/12 odds in Kempton’s Christmas Hurdle. Observers learned nothing more than the eight-time raced and unbeaten horse is fit, well, and remains on course for the defence of his Champion Hurdle crown.

But it is back to the drawing board for Facile Vega, who finished last of four in Leopardstown’s Grade-1 Racing Post Novices’ Chase. Found A Fifty won this contest, but the UK’s betting sites did not rush to give the Gordon Elliott-trained six-year-old short-priced quotes for potential Cheltenham Festival assignments.

Another short-priced disappointment at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting was Captain Guinness. Pulled up in the Grade-1 Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase, post-race, he was declared to have an abnormal heartbeat.

The contest went to the JP McManus-owned Dinoblue. She has four potential races at the Punchestown Festival to aim at, but the Mares Chase looks the obvious target. She is currently priced 5/2 for that contest.

Three Stars of the Future?

Like Il Est Francais, Marine Nationale ran an impeccable race when winning a Beginners Chase at Leopardstown. He is currently six-from-six, with victories in two National Hunt Flat races, three hurdle contests and this debut over the bigger obstacles. Marine Nationale is now top-priced even-money with 888 Sport for the Arkle Chase at the Festival.

Another comprehensive Leopardstown winner was Caldwell Porter. Taking the Future Champions Novice Hurdle by six lengths, this Gordon Elliott-trained French-bred is now top-priced 14/1 for the Supreme Novices Hurdle and quoted on 12/1 for the Ballymore Novices Hurdle.

Similarly, Jade De Grugy trounced 15 rivals in a Maiden Hurdle at the Dublin racecourse. This French-bred was one-for-one in her native country. Following 452 days off the course and under the tutelage of Willie Mullins, she could not have been more impressive.

Her dam, Diane De Grugy, is an unraced half-sister to five-time Grade-1 winner Sire De Grugy. And so, the sky looks the limit for Jade De Grugy. Her obvious Cheltenham Festival target is the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle – for which Bet UK quote her on 14/1.

Has The Welsh National Uncovered Another Champion?

It was a case of the further he went, the further he won for Nassalam in the Coral Welsh Grand National. Gary Moore’s gelding, who turned seven on New Year’s Day, had never raced beyond three miles, but he trounced his big-race rivals by 34 lengths and more.

The Ultima Handicap Chase on day one of the Cheltenham Festival looks the obvious next step in a career that could ultimately involve a stab at the Grand National. During their careers, Corbiere, Bindaree and Silver Birch all completed the Welsh and English Grand National double.

In an informative Tweet, racing expert Steve Jones pointed out: “The last five horses before Nassalam to win the Welsh National carrying 11st 6lbs or more were: Elegant Escape, Native River, Synchronised, Master Oats, Carvill’s Hill. Three Gold Cup winners and one more than good enough to win a Gold Cup.”

Champs Galloped Rivals Ragged

Following a 23-length thumping of seven rivals – including the 2022 Gold Cup winner, A Plus Tard, and four-time Grade-1 winner Gerri Colombe – in Leopardstown’s Savills Chase, the 2024 Gold Cup looks at the mercy of defending champion Galopin Des Champs.

His odds for the Cheltenham Festival showstopper currently range between even-money and 11/10. The success was a welcome return to form for the Willie Mullins-trained chaser. He had been beaten into second and third by Fastorslow on his previous two starts – in Punchestown’s Gold Cup and the John Durkan Chase.

Fastorslow was an eleventh-hour withdrawal from the Savills Chase due to heavy ground. Presumably, an alternative Cheltenham Festival prep race will have to be found for the horse that was beaten by a neck in last season’s Ultima Handicap Chase. It was a contest where he gave his conqueror and subsequent Grand National winner four pounds.

Cheltenham Festival bookmakers now have Fastorslow priced on 9/2 in the Gold Cup betting. Gerri Colombe, 10/1, Shishkin, 12/1, Hewick, 16/1, L’Homme Presse, 20/1 and Bravemansgame, 25/1, follow in the betting lists.

Mullins’ Winner Factory Stays Open at Christmas

The Willie Mullins factory continued to churn out winners throughout the Christmas period. His Ballyburn landed a Leopardstown Hurdle by 25 lengths – immediately placing him in the “could be anything” category.

Another Mullins’ inmate, State Man, won his ninth race from his last ten outings when comfortably landing the Grade-1 Matheson Hurdle. A rematch with Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle is now on the cards. Last year, he was beaten nine lengths into second by his rival. Cheltenham Festival bookmakers quote State Man on 4/1 to turn the tables.

Grangeclare West went two-from-two over fences when landing the Grade-1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase. Eased towards the winning line, he had six lengths to spare over the runner-up and finished 16 lengths in hand of two-time Stayers Hurdle winner Flooring Porter.

Willie Mullins’ has won Cheltenham’s Brown Advisory Novices Chase five times. Grangeclare West is the favourite, priced 4/1, to land this year’s race and take the trainer’s win record in this contest to six.

Glory Will Come for Aintree Faller

The history books show the 2023 William Hill Formby Novices’ Hurdle – better known as Aintree’s Grade-1 Tolworth Hurdle – was won by Jango Bai. Trained by Nicky Henderson, connections will hope the four-year-old winner can emulate the success of previous winners, not least its 2022 winner, the imperious Constitution Hill.

But history books only tell part of a story, and the Gordon Elliott-trained Farren Glory appeared to be going far better than the winner when taking a heavy fall two hurdles from home. This gelded son of Fame And Glory would have surely won convincingly if clearing the final two flights.

Farren Glory has yet to complete a race jumping all obstacles fluently. But he did enough to win at Grade-1 level at Fairyhouse in December and has a big engine. A half-brother to the exciting unbeaten hurdler, Croke Park, two miles four-furlong-plus trips look within his compass. Racing at a slower pace could help with his jumping, and if Farren Glory takes up an engagement at the Cheltenham Festival, he may run a big race at a tasty price.

UK Has a Supreme Shot

The Champion Hurdle apart, it is easy to question whether the UK will win any significant non-handicap race at the Festival. As the 5/1 betting favourite for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, Jeriko Du Reponet is amongst the best hopes of a winner for the home defence.

French-bred and bought by JP McManus after winning an Irish point-to-point, Jeriko Du Reponet was impressive when winning his second of two starts – a Newbury Class-3 ‘Introductory’ Hurdle – for Nicky Henderson. The Lambourn-based trainer has won the Supreme five times, including the 2022 edition with Constitution Hill.

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