Olympic Games 2024: Why It Is a Good Bet to Get On Early
The 2024 Summer Olympics, officially the Games of the XXXIII Olympiad, will open with a lavish ceremony on Friday, 26 July, in Paris. Igniting a flame that will burn bright over two and a half weeks of sport, action will conclude when it is extinguished on Sunday, 11 August. It will not be re-lit until 2028 in Los Angeles.
According to the International Olympic Committee, the games are the “largest sporting celebration in terms of the number of sports featured, the number of athletes present and the number of people from different nations gathered together at the same time, in the same place, in the spirit of friendly competition.”
Chinese weightlifter Lyu Xiaojun has won gold at the last three Olympics. His nation’s athletes will surely dominate the discipline in Paris 2024, and, despite the odds, it can push the USA close in the gold medal table. ©Getty
There is little friendly competition when trying to beat the bookmakers. The Olympics may still be months away, but, like an IPO (Initial Public Offering) on the stock exchange, our in-depth guide to betting on the Olympics suggests the day Olympic betting markets open may be the best day to get involved.
USA Tops, but Russian Fingerprints All Over Gold Medals
The United States of America is widely predicted to win the greatest number of gold medals at the Summer Olympics. The nation took 39 golds at the delayed 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games. At previous Olympics, the USA’s gold medal tally read: 46 (Rio de Janeiro), 48 (London), 36 (Beijing), 36 (Athens) and 37 (Atlanta).
Several online bookmakers offer a betting market on the nation claiming the most gold medals. Understandably, betting firms make the USA long odds-on to top the table. The country has led the medal tally 18 times (from 29 Games). Unsurprisingly, the USA tops the all-time total medals won from all Games.
The United States of America has won 1,061 summer Olympic golds since the modern Olympics began in 1896. The former USSR sits second on the all-time list despite far fewer appearances at the Games. It claimed 395 golds.
In 1992, after the break-up of the Soviet Union, a Unified Team consisting of twelve former Soviet republics: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan led that year’s Olympic Games medal count.
Star of the Unified Team’s show was Belarusian gymnast Vitaly Scherbo. He won six gold medals in gymnastics at the Barcelona Games. The Unified Team claimed 45 gold medals, eight more than the USA.
Since the 2020 Summer Olympics, athletes from Russia have competed as the ROC (Russian Olympic Committee), winning 20 golds. Beforehand, as an individual nation, Russia won 147 gold medals.
| Table Topping Nations at the Summer Olympics | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Host City | Country | Gold | Silver | Bronze | Total |
| 2021 | Tokyo | USA | 39 | 41 | 33 | 113 |
| 2016 | Rio | USA | 46 | 37 | 38 | 121 |
| 2012 | London | USA | 46 | 29 | 29 | 104 |
| 2008 | Beijing | China | 51 | 21 | 28 | 100 |
| 2004 | Athens | USA | 35 | 39 | 29 | 103 |
| 2000 | Sydney | USA | 30 | 24 | 33 | 97 |
| 1996 | Atlanta | USA | 44 | 32 | 25 | 101 |
| 1992 | Barcelona | Unified Team | 45 | 38 | 29 | 112 |
| 1988 | Seoul | USSR | 55 | 31 | 46 | 132 |
| 1984 | Los Angeles* | USA | 83 | 61 | 30 | 174 |
| 1980 | Moscow** | USSR | 80 | 69 | 46 | 195 |
| 1976 | Montreal | USSR | 49 | 41 | 35 | 125 |
| 1972 | Munich | USSR | 50 | 27 | 22 | 99 |
* USSR boycotted the Games.
** The USA and allies boycotted these Games.
Bookmakers currently make the USA the 1/8 favourites to win the most gold medals at the Paris Olympics. China is 5/1, France, Great Britain, and Japan follow on 80/1. All other nations can be backed at 250/1 or bigger. Japan, albeit with slim odds, may be considered a surprise contender.
Sadly, there are no each-way terms available on the medal table betting. If there were, Japan could be a fair proposition to clinch third in the medal table. The nation had an outstanding Tokyo Olympics, with its athletes claiming 27 gold and 14 silver medals. It placed Japan third on the medal table, ahead of Great Britain, which won 22 golds.
| Tokyo 2020 Medal Count Table | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos. | Country | Gold | Silver | Bronze | Total |
| 1 | USA | 39 | 41 | 33 | 113 |
| 2 | China | 38 | 32 | 18 | 88 |
| 3 | Japan | 27 | 14 | 17 | 58 |
| 4 | Great Britain | 22 | 20 | 22 | 64 |
| 5 | ROC | 20 | 28 | 23 | 71 |
| 6 | Australia | 17 | 7 | 22 | 46 |
The Sports Where Nations Sink and Swim
Gymnast Daiki Hashimoto was a star of Japan’s 2020 Olympic team, winning two golds and a silver. Winning three golds at the World Artistic Gymnastics Championships in October 2023, the 22-year-old could be Japan’s biggest gold medal contributor in 2024.
Japan’s most successful sport will almost certainly be Judo. Japan took nine gold medals in that sport at the last Olympics. On a sports basis, the USA found swimming to be its most fruitful sport in Tokyo 2020. Its swimmers claimed 11 golds and seven more in track and field events.
In 2024, diving and weightlifting will likely be China’s strong suit. At the last Olympics, the nation won seven gold medals in both sports. Cycling has long been a strong suit for Great Britain. The country won six cycling golds in Tokyo.
Swimming was Great Britain’s next best sport. It produced four gold medals, albeit Adam Peaty won two of these. The 29-year-old claimed two bronzes in February’s World Aquatics Championships, which suggests further gold medal Olympic glory may elude him in Paris.
What Are the Best Olympic Prediction Sites?
Olympic Games predictions from Nielsen’s Gracenote have repeatedly proven head-and-shoulders above all other prediction sites. A global leader in audience measurement, data and analytics, it has considered results from key international competitions since the 2021 Summer Games and projected gold, silver and bronze medal counts for participating countries.
Making accurate predictions can be a challenging task. As Nielsen’s Gracenote states: “With competitors from Russia and Belarus being banned from international competition in almost all Olympic sports since February 2022, it is not possible to assess potential performance accurately for those participating as Individual Neutral Athletes at Paris 2024.”
Nielsen’s Gracenote latest predictions – and they will be updated monthly – suggest that the USA’s odds of topping the medal table are too short as China is expected to push the Americans very close. The latest predictions are:
| Pos. | Country | Gold | Silver | Bronze | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA | 37 | 46 | 46 | 129 |
| 2 | China | 35 | 28 | 22 | 85 |
| 3 | France | 26 | 16 | 11 | 53 |
| 4 | Great Britain | 17 | 22 | 25 | 64 |
| 5 | Japan | 17 | 15 | 16 | 28 |
| 6 | Australia | 15 | 17 | 16 | 48 |
The standout country in Nielsen’s Gracenote virtual medal table is France, which is predicted to have its best Olympic Games since 1900. The firm says it “projects that host nation France will increase its medal total significantly and nearly triple its number of gold medals in comparison to the Tokyo Olympics.”
“Summer Olympic success for France has been achieved in 15 to 19 different sports at each Olympics this century, but medals are now projected in 22 different sports, a new French record,” states Nielsen’s Gracenote in an early report.
What Are the Olympic Bet Options?
Win and each-way markets will be available on all athletic/track events and some of the better-known traditional betting sports – such as golf, tennis and cycling. The Olympic Games blue riband event remains the Men’s 100 metres. Three years ago, Italy’s Lamont Marcell Jacobs defied 33/1 odds to win gold in the sprint.
Lamont Marcell Jacobs recorded 9.80 seconds, making him the fastest European in history. The time is way short of the 9.58 world record set by Usain Bolt in 2009. Marcell Jacobs, now living and training in Florida, will attempt to retain his title in Paris, but Noah Lyles is the early betting favourite.
Bets can also be placed on the Men’s 100 and 200-metre world records being broken at the Paris Games. Olympic Games betting sites currently offer 3/1 on either sprint record falling this summer. At the last Olympics, the Men’s 400-metre hurdles was the only track world record broken in Men’s athletics.
In the bigger picture, betting markets will be available on the number of golds – and medals of all colours – won by individual countries. In 2021, William Hill and Betway offered 5/6 odds on Team GB, collecting more or less than 41.5 medals. The ‘more’ option appeared a great bet, and so it proved. Team GB won 64 medals at the last Olympics.
Wrestling Betting Value in the Final Days
As with stock trading, investing early could present the best opportunity to profit from the Paris Olympics. There are many dedicated Olympic news sites, and most nations have official Olympic websites. Resultingly, up-to-the-minute news and form pointers will always be readily available to dedicated punters.
Identifying betting angles among the 329 gold medal events encompassing 32 sports is not necessarily simple, but finding a winning edge is possible. For example, if betting in play on the medal tables, be mindful that Swimming awards considerably more medals than any other sport in the opening week.
During the first five days of Olympic action, 35 Swimming gold medals will be won. In the same period, Rowing will award 14 golds and Shooting 13. Conversely, during the final six days of games, 19 Wrestling golds – a sport where Japan excels – will find new homes. The timetable allows for volatility in the medal totals in live and in-running betting markets.
