Eurovision Betting 2024: The Countdown Has Started
The 2024 Eurovision Song Contest final will take place on May 11, but the race to earn a spot in the world’s biggest talent competition is well underway. Thirty-seven countries will send a representative to the 68th edition of the show staged, for a seventh time, in Sweden.
French artist Slimane will represent his country at the 2024 Eurovision Song Contest. His song, ‘Mon Amour,’ is very similar to the 2021 French entry that finished second. ©GettyImages
In December, the BBC, courtesy of its internal selection process, announced Olly Alexander will represent the UK at the competition. Never before has the identity of the UK’s chosen act been revealed so early. His song is under a veil of secrecy, but it was co-written by Alexander and Danny L Harle, who has produced hits for Dua Lipa, Chic and Charli XCX.
“It’s gonna be electronic, something you can dance to,” Alexander told BBC News. In an earlier press release, he said: “I really can’t believe I’m going to be a part of such a special legacy and fly the flag for the UK in the gayest way possible. I’m determined to give it everything I’ve got and put on an excellent and unforgettable performance for you all!”
A First UK Victory in 27 Years?
Surprisingly, for a nation that finished 25th of the 26 finalists in 2023 – and 24th or worse in nine of the past 15 Eurovision Song Contests – the UK is currently the favourite to win the 2024 competition. Eurovision betting sites quote the UK, last victorious in 1997, on prices ranging between 4/1 and 13/2.
As countries unveil their acts and, most importantly, their songs, the Eurovision betting market will surely see dramatic price shifts. So far, 13 countries have announced their act. Eight of these countries: Albania, Austria, Cyprus, Czechia, France, Ireland, Luxembourg and Slovenia have released their song.
None have impressed bookmakers and are not in the top 10 of the current betting. The French song, ‘Mon Amour’, appears the best. It is deep and passionate. Despite being sung by a male performer, it clearly resembles France’s 2021 entry ‘Voila’, which finished second.
At 25/1, there is each-way betting value in France. The country is one of the ‘big five’ – meaning its song is fast-tracked into the final. Ireland is shorter in the betting, and that is inexplicable. Its representative, Bambie Thug, is the first non-binary artist to represent the country at Eurovision and uses they/them pronouns.
A Marilyn Manson clone with an act and song – ‘song’ being a loosely applied term – that is fit for a Halloween stage show, our experts believe it is unlikely Bambie will give Ireland only its second finalist in the past ten years.
Eurovision Song Contest Recent Results
| 2023 | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Sweden | 583 points |
| 2nd | Finland | 526 points |
| 3rd | Israel | 362 points |
| 2022 | ||
| 1st | Ukraine | 631 points |
| 2nd | UK | 466 points |
| 3rd | Spain | 459 points |
| 2021 | ||
| 1st | Italy | 524 points |
| 2nd | France | 499 points |
| 3rd | Switzerland | 432 points |
| 2020 | ||
| Cancelled/Covid | ||
| 2019 | ||
| 1st | Netherlands | 498 points |
| 2nd | Italy | 472 points |
| 3rd | Russia | 370 points |
| 2018 | ||
| 1st | Israel | 529 points |
| 2nd | Cyprus | 436 points |
| 3rd | Austria | 342 points |
No Harm in Backing Sanremo Winner Blind
The first of the meaningful price shifts and the emergence of a solid Eurovision favourite will likely happen during the second week of February. History shows the conclusion of the Sanremo Music Festival always leads to an avalanche of money for Italy.
In 2024, the first of four Sanremo Music Festival semi-finals will begin on February 6. Four days later, 12 acts will contest the final. The winner’s prize is the right to represent Italy at Eurovision. Last year, over 12 million people watched the show live on television.
At this juncture, a stream of bets from loyal Italian supporters never fails to leave Eurovision bookmakers with a lopsided ante-post book. But, in recent years, the money has not been misguided. Italy has finished in the top six of Eurovision seven times in the past eight years.
Winners in 2021, Italy were beaten just 26 points into second in 2019 and took third in 2015. It is an excellent record and, understanding money will arrive for Italy in the aftermath of the Sanremo Music Festival, backing the three-time Eurovision winners now, at Coral’s industry top price of 10/1, is a good bet.
Sweden Does the Melody Best
As defending champions, Sweden will host the 2024 Eurovision Song Contest. Malmo has been selected as the host city. In addition to three nights of semi-final and final action, Malmo Arena will get a first taste of Eurovision fever by staging the opening night of Melodifestivalen 2024.
One in four of Sweden’s adult population watches this show, which has five weeks of heats in different cities/venues. Thirty acts will take part in Melodifestivalen 2024. The final, where the winner receives the right to represent Sweden in Eurovision, takes place in Stockholm’s 65,000-seater Friends Arena on March 9.
Like Italy, Eurovision is taken very seriously in Sweden. The dedication has paid off, with the country claiming the prize seven times since 1974. However, the nation has never won the competition in back-to-back years. Bookmakers are aware of the overall poor record of defending nations and make Sweden 12/1 to retain the Eurovision prize in 2024.
Germany Needs Big Help
Germany is one of the ‘Big Five’ countries automatically placed in the Eurovision final in return for being one of the most significant financial contributors to the European Broadcasting Union. In recent years, this fast track has done the nation little good.
The country – which has participated in more Eurovision Song Contests than any other – has finished 25th or worse in seven of the last eight editions. The statistics make bet365’s 20/1 quote on Germany bewildering.
The final of Germany’s selection show, Eurovision Song Contest – Das Deutsche Finale 2024, will take place on February 16. The winner will overcome eight rivals in the concluding show, where they are selected by a 50/50 combination of votes from an international jury and a public televote.
Iceland Has Two Decisions to Make
Iceland, 6/1 third favourites in most Eurovision Song Contest betting lists, comes with a wealth warning. Like Germany, the country’s odds are puzzling. If failing to qualify for the final five times in eight years is a stumbling block, the island’s threat of boycotting the 2024 event is a roadblock.
Ten acts will contest Söngvakeppnin 2024 – the national selection shows organised by broadcaster RÚV – consisting of two semi-finals on February 17 and 24 and a March 2 final. However, the inclusion of Israel in Eurovision 2024, despite the ongoing humanitarian crisis and military operations in the Gaza Strip, has sparked controversy in Iceland.
Subsequent petitions have prompted RÚV to declare that Iceland’s Eurovision participation will be reevaluated after discussions with Söngvakeppnin’s winning act. Given the pressure, the winning artist must be considered unlikely to make the trip to Malmo.
That is unless Palestinian singer-songwriter and video artist Bashar Murad wins Söngvakeppnin. Competing under an Icelandic flag of convenience, his participation in Eurovision could lead to a Europe-wide protest vote akin to that enjoyed by Ukraine in Eurovision 2022.
Who Will Win Eurovision 2024?
The Eurovision betting markets are embryonic but will develop quickly in the coming weeks. Of the acts so far unveiled, France’s Slimane, winner of season five of ‘The Voice’ France, looks like top-ten material.
As usual, Italy must be respected, and the country is a surprisingly generous price. Australia is also of interest. Eight previous appearances have yielded five top-10 finishes, including 2016’s runner-up spot. That alone makes the 33/1 available on the Land Down Under a fair bet. If rumours that Danni Minogue will be unveiled as its contestant ring true, the ‘double carpet’ odds will quickly evaporate.
