Aston Villa vs Burnley 2025/26 Premier League Bet Builder & Predictions
Aston Villa vs Burnley at Villa Park on Sunday presents a crucial Premier League encounter between two teams desperate to build momentum. Our football betting expert foresees a difficult afternoon for the visitors, predicting an Aston Villa Win, Ollie Watkins to Score Anytime, and Over 2.5 Goals.
Team News and Context
Aston Villa head into this fixture with a significant confidence boost after securing their first league win of the season, a 3-1 comeback victory against Fulham. That result will have lifted the mood at Villa Park after a winless start to the campaign. However, manager Unai Emery is contending with a number of absences.
Key defender Tyrone Mings is ruled out with an ankle/foot injury, while the midfield is weakened by the unavailability of Amadou Onana (thigh), Youri Tielemans (calf), and Ross Barkley. Jadon Sancho is also a doubt through illness. On a more positive note, John McGinn, who was instrumental against Fulham, has been passed fit after picking up a knock in that match.
Burnley, meanwhile, arrive in Birmingham in dismal form, particularly on their travels. Scott Parker’s side are languishing in 18th place and have lost all three of their away fixtures this season, conceding 11 goals in the process. Their last outing was a chastening 5-1 defeat at the hands of Manchester City, a result compounded by two unfortunate own goals from defender Maxime Esteve.
The Clarets’ defensive issues are exacerbated by injuries to key personnel. Jordan Beyer (thigh) and Connor Roberts (knee) are both sidelined, removing two important components of their backline. Furthermore, attacker Zeki Amdouni is a long-term absentee with an ACL injury.
Recent Form and Previous Weekend Recap
Aston Villa’s 3-1 victory over Fulham last Sunday was a tale of two halves. After falling behind to an early Raul Jimenez goal, Villa looked poor for large spells of the first period before finding their rhythm. The turning point was Ollie Watkins’ equaliser, his first goal in nine games, which visibly galvanised the team. Quick-fire goals from John McGinn and Emi Buendia early in the second half sealed a crucial three points that Emery will be desperate to build upon.
Burnley’s trip to the Etihad last Saturday was an afternoon to forget. Despite Jaidon Anthony levelling the score in the first half, the Clarets were ultimately overwhelmed. Two own goals from Maxime Esteve were calamitous, and a late brace from Erling Haaland embellished a scoreline that confirmed City’s dominance. The defeat means Burnley have taken just one point from their last four league matches and are winless on the road this season, having scored just three and conceded 11 in their three away games.
Head to Head and Current Standings
Historically, this has been a fixture dominated by Aston Villa, who have won six of the last 13 meetings, with Burnley winning just two. In the last eight league encounters, Villa have won four, drawn three, and lost only once. These matches have often produced goals, with 85% of the last 13 seeing both teams score and an average of 3.23 goals per game.
Currently, the two sides are separated by just two points at the wrong end of the table. Aston Villa sit in 16th position with six points from their opening six matches, while Burnley are in the relegation zone in 18th, having accrued just four points from their six games.
Key Players to Watch
For Aston Villa, Ollie Watkins is the man in the spotlight. Having broken his nine-game scoring drought against Fulham, his confidence will be renewed. As Villa’s primary goal threat, he will be eager to add to his tally against a Burnley defence that has proven to be exceptionally porous away from home. John McGinn will also be vital; his player-of-the-match performance last weekend, capped with a goal, underlined his importance to Villa’s midfield drive.
For the visitors, Jaidon Anthony stands out as their most potent attacking weapon. Despite the team’s struggles, he is their top scorer with four goals this season and netted their only goal against Manchester City. If Burnley are to get anything from this game, he will likely be at the heart of their best moments.
Match Prediction and Betting Tips
This match pits a home side buoyed by a much-needed first victory against a visiting team in dire away form and nursing key defensive injuries. Aston Villa’s attack finally clicked into gear in the second half against Fulham, with Ollie Watkins’ return to the scoresheet being a particularly significant development. Burnley’s record on the road is abysmal, with zero points and an average of 3.67 goals conceded per game. The absence of defenders Jordan Beyer and Connor Roberts only compounds their problems, making it difficult to see them containing a newly confident Villa attack.
Our football betting tips for Aston Villa vs Burnley are:
Aston Villa to Win at 3/5: Burnley’s away form is wretched; they have lost all three of their matches on the road, scoring just three and conceding 11. Villa, fresh from their first win of the season and with home advantage, should have too much quality and momentum for the struggling Clarets.
Ollie Watkins to Score Anytime at 5/4: The England striker ended a frustrating goal drought last weekend and will be brimming with confidence. He faces a Burnley defence that is yet to keep a clean sheet away from home (a 100% conceding rate) and is missing key personnel. This looks like an excellent opportunity for him to score in consecutive games.
Over 2.5 Goals at 4/5: This market is priced at 1.82 in the documents, which is approximately 4/5. All three of Burnley’s away games this season have seen over 2.5 goals, with those matches averaging a remarkable 4.67 total goals. The head-to-head record also points towards goals, with an average of 3.38 in the last eight league meetings. Given Villa just scored three and Burnley’s defensive frailties, this looks a solid bet.
A victory for Villa could see them pull clear of the bottom three and start looking up the table, while Burnley are in desperate need of a result to avoid being cut adrift.
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