Premier League Week 12: Expert Betting Tips by Luke Andrews

by Luke Andrews, 10 November 2023

Last week’s Premier League matches reaffirmed the saying: “expect the unexpected,” with both previously unbeaten teams suffering defeats. The upcoming weekend’s games are expected to be equally thrilling. Our sports expert, Luke Andrews, has pinpointed five crucial matches that could significantly influence the league standings. He delves into the teams’ performances, recent form, and past results to identify betting markets worth your attention. Don’t bet until you’ve read his in-depth analysis.

The Premier League Match week twelve sets up what is about to be an exciting weekend of exciting football. I’ll look at these fixtures: Tottenham travelling to the Molineux to try to get back to winning ways after seeing their unbeaten run ended last weekend by Chelsea. The Blues have not been in great form but have brought their best performances against the top six opposition, beating Spurs and drawing against Arsenal; thus, they will be confident of getting a good result against treble winners Man City.

The Gunners felt cheated by VAR decisions against Newcastle that ended their unbeaten run, but they will have a chance to get their scoring boots back on when they welcome Burnley to the Emirates. Liverpool will play Brentford, while West Ham takes on Nottingham Forest.

Join me as I assess the fixtures I’ll be focussing on when Premier League betting this weekend.

Premier League Betting – Wolverhampton Wanderers v Tottenham

The Wolves’ impressive five (two wins, three draws) unbeaten games ended with a disappointing 2 – 1 defeat against Sheffield United. The run included a 2 – 1 win against the reigning champion, Manchester City. The managerial outbursts against the referee with a controversial penalty decision saw drop points in an increasing concern for VAR.

Gary O’Neil’s side is now four places off the relegation zone with a six-point cushion heading to a tough encounter against the in-form Tottenham heading to the international break. The West Midlander’s side has won two and drawn one in the last three head-to-head matches and should be full of confidence heading to this encounter.

Hwang Hee-Chan has had eight goal contributions (five goals, three assists) for both club and country since the start of the season with an assist in their previous match.

Home team top scorer: Pedro Neto odds for first 10/1 and anytime scorer 37/10.

Tottenham’s unbeaten run and long reign at the top of the Premier League came crumbling down at the hands of Chelsea on Monday night. It was a thrilling, action-packed game, but Spurs lost 4 – 1 to dent their excellent record of eight wins, two draws, and one defeat.

Ange Postecoglou’s side still has an excellent record on the road this season, winning four and drawing two and will hope they can take all three points and move back to the top of the table.

The London side has more points from losing position in their away games, winning once and drawing two. The Molineux is one of two stadiums that they failed to score last season but have scored in all their games this season. Son Heung-Min has eight goals and one assist in the league and will be looking for his first-ever goal against Wolves.

Away team top scorer: Heung -Ming-Son odds for first 11/2 and anytime scorer 13/8.

Selected bets: Wolverhampton 12/5, Draw 14/5, Tottenham 6/5. Over 2.5 8/13, Under 2.5 27/20. BTTS Yes 11/20 No 13/8

“For this game, I’m going for Over 7.5 Total Corners: Both teams have a high percentage of matches going over 7.5 total corners (Wolverhampton 73% at home, Tottenham 100% away). This stat strongly suggests that the match will likely have at least eight corners.” – Luke Andrews, Betting Expert – UK Market.

Over 8 corners is available at 1/3 with BetTarget.

Premier League Betting – Arsenal v Burnley

The Gunners’ unbeaten run in the Premier League came to a controversial end after a 1 – 0 defeat against Newcastle. Mikel Arteta had an outburst post-game, calling out the VAR decision, calling it embarrassing and a disgrace, which was an insult to the whole Premier League competition based on the officiating.

A subsequent convincing 2 – 0 win against Sevilla in the Champions League will have served as a huge boost heading to a home fixture against Burnley. Nothing less than a return to winning ways, especially in the league, looking to extend their impressive home unbeaten record of six wins and two draws, will do for the Gunners.

Arteta has a poor record against Burnley as the only team in the Premier League he has failed to beat (one draw, one defeat); thus, he will hope to make a mark in this encounter. Kai Havertz has scored three goals in the last two matches against the Clarets.

Home team top scorer: Eddie Nketiah – odds for first 1/4 and anytime scorer 11/10.

Burnley had huge dreams and aspirations when they achieved promotion to the Premier League after winning the Championship. Eleven games in, Vincent Kompany has nine defeats, one win, and one draw, treading water in the relegation-infested waters.

The most recent defeat was in the hands of Crystal Palace (2 – 0), with the manager praising his side for an excellent performance but now having to convert that to wins and points. The Clarets have one win in the last sixteen matches against the Gunners (four draws, eleven defeats) but are unbeaten in the previous two visits to the Emirates (winning one, drawing one).

A poor defensive record plagues the newly promoted side; they are without a shutout in the Premier League and have the worst attack with eight goals. Therefore it’s no surprise to see the odds for both teams to score are high at sports betting sites.

Away team top scorer: Lyle Foster – odds for first 25/1 and anytime scorer 7/1.

Selected bets: Arsenal 1/5, Draw 13/2, Burnley 16/1. Over 2.5 1/2, Under 2.5 13/8. BTTS No 8/11 Yes 6/5.

Premier League Betting – Liverpool v Brentford

Liverpool is keeping up an impressive season, sitting third in the Premier League table and is one of the favourites to win the title (third favourites with bet365 at 7/1).

They are unbeaten in the last four games, winning two and drawing two. The Reds had a Europa League encounter against Toulouse on Thursday night; they lost 3-2 but still have a two-point cushion at the top of their group.

Jurgen Klopp’s side left it late to secure a point against a motivated Luton side, with Luis Diaz scoring the ninety-plus-five equalising goal. They must begin high and mighty against a much-threatening Brentford side with the artillery to hurt teams, especially on the counterattack. Mohammed Salah has twelve goal involvements (eight goals, four assists), has been in fine form this campaign and is a threat to score every game.

Home team top scorer: Mohammed Salah – odds for first 4/1 and anytime scorer 21/20.

Brentford will be looking for a first point at Anfield, having lost all their previous encounters and are yet to score. They lost 3 – 0 and 1 – 0 in their last game against the Reds but were unbeaten against them in their two away games, winning 3 – 1 at the Gtech Community Stadium in their most recent match and a 3 – 3 draw earlier.

The Bees are in impressive form, winning the last three games and keeping two clean sheets, including a 2 – 0 win against Chelsea away. They hope to replicate the impressive form with a win, sending them to four consecutive wins and reinstating their status as the top half of the table.

Saman Ghoddos has won the @premierleague Goal of the Month award for his stunning strike against Burnley 🙌

Congratulations, Saman 👏 pic.twitter.com/IAzuun5X9k

— Brentford FC (@BrentfordFC) November 10, 2023

Saman Ghoddos has a decent shot on him and Bryan Mbeumo has found his goal-scoring form with six goals, with his pace on the counterattack an inspiring factor in the Bees’ attack.

Away team top scorer: Bryan Mbeumo – odds for first 11/1 and anytime scorer 16/5.

Selected bets: Liverpool 11/25, Draw 43/10, Brentford 13/2. Over 2.5 10/21, Under 2.5 7/4. BTTS Yes 4/6 No 13/1.

Premier League Betting – Chelsea v Manchester City

Chelsea has been struggling this season and currently sits in position ten with just fifteen points, having won as many games as they have lost (four).

The Blues have, however, given their fans exceptional performances against the top six despite their struggles this season. Mauricio Pochettino would be delighted to see Chelsea beat his former team, Tottenham, 4 – 1, following up a 2 – 2 draw against Arsenal.

The Monday result will motivate them to get a good result against the Champions despite their struggles against them, losing their last four games in the league against them. The London side will be hoping for consistency, and a good result here could be the turning point in their season without European football.

On the European note, they will be well rested heading to the match as Manchester City played on Tuesday, beating Young Boys 3-0. Nicholas Jackson scored a hat trick against Tottenham to take his campaign tally to five goals.

Home team top scorer: Nicholas Jackson – Odds for first 9/1 and anytime scorer 17/5.

The league is starting to take shape, and the defending champions, Manchester City, is already at the helm. A reassuring sight for the Citizens fraternity as they seldom lose the lead once they are in control, raising the prospect for another successive season.

They bounced back strongly from two consecutive defeats to Wolves and Arsenal to win three straight games, including a 3 – 0 win against Manchester United.

Pep Guardiola’s team aims for a positive outcome as they face another ‘Big-Six’ team. Travelling to Stamford Bridge, they will play against a team they have defeated in their last four encounters, each with a 1-0 scoreline.

The under 2.5 market looks promising despite having stars such as Erling Haaland, who has eleven goals in their ranks. Jeremy Doku had five goal involvements (one goal, four assists) in their 6 – 1 triumph against Bournemouth.

Away team top scorer: Erling Haaland – odds for first 3/1 and anytime scorer 17/5.

Selected bets: Chelsea 4/1, Draw 14/5, Manchester City 13/16. Over 2.5 11/13, Under 2.5 27/25. BTTS Yes 11/14 No 23/20.

Premier League Betting – West Ham United v Nottingham Forest

The London side has been trying to juggle the Premier League and Europa Conference League campaigns with mixed results. A vital 1-0 against Olympiacos on Thursday night sees them level with Freiburg at the top.

Lucas Paqueta’s remarkable goal with 17 minutes remaining sealed the win. This victory propels them to the verge of progressing to the knockout stages, marking a significant step towards their ultimate goal.

🗣 Lucas Paqueta:

"Playing in front of our fans at home is always an immense pleasure." 🇧🇷⚒️ pic.twitter.com/VQI07JP8qs

— COYIrons (@COYIronscom) November 10, 2023

They are safe from relegation but haven’t been convincing. David Moyes has to play by his team’s strength as it feels they are stretching with three consecutive defeats in the league against opposition they should be getting a good result against. That means they are winless in the last four league games (three defeats, one draw).

Jarrod Bowen has seven goals and has been in fine form this season, while Vladimir Coufal leads the assist tally for the London side with four assists.

Home team top scorer: Jarred Bowen – odds for first 13/2 and anytime scorer 21/10.

The team playing at home has ended up victorious in the last three games in this fixture, meaning the Forester must bring their best game to get a result against West Ham. The last time they broke that cycle, they drew 0 – 0 when the Hammers’ home stadium was still Boleyn Ground in 1977.

Gliding through their second season in the Premier League, Nottingham Forest, under Steve Cooper, is one of the most resilient teams in the league that can disappoint, especially against opposition such as West Ham.

Two attackers giving Cooper a headache are Taiwo Awoniyi and Chris Wood, who are tied on three goals. His dilemma will be which one should start. Former Manchester Antony Elanga has been incredible for the Foresters since he joined them with three assists.

They will hope to build on the surprise 2 – 0 win against the in-form Aston Villa.

Away team top scorer: Taiwo Awoniyi – odds for first 15/2 and anytime scorer 11/4.

Selected bets: West Ham 10/11, Draw 29/10, Nottingham Forest 10/3. Over 2.5 4/5, Under 2.5 27/25. BTTS Yes 8/11 No 6/5.

This upcoming match week is shaping up to be a thrilling one. The highlight is expected to be the clash between Chelsea and Manchester City, where Chelsea aims to continue their strong performance against top teams.

Another notable match is West Ham hosting Nottingham Forest, a challenging game given West Ham’s packed schedule and Forest’s knack for securing narrow away wins. Wolves facing Tottenham might result in an upset, though Tottenham’s current form as title contenders makes this less probable.

Arsenal and Liverpool’s home games are likely victories with significant goal differences, making the betting markets for over 2.5 or 3.5 goals potentially attractive.

All stats are taken from sites such as SoccerSTATS.com, and the odds are correct at the time of writing but can fluctuate, especially in play.