The 007 License Is up for Grabs – Who Do the Bookies Favour?
In November 2019, Daniel Craig confirmed ‘No Time To Die’ would be his last appearance as 007 in the famous James Bond film franchise. His announcement came on the eve of the planned launch date of the 25th James Bond movie. The Covid pandemic ultimately led to the film’s release date being postponed several times. The $300 million production eventually hit cinema screens in September 2021.
Technically, over five years have passed since Craig last put his Walther PPK in its holster. But Bond betting sites have been taking bets on his replacement for almost a decade when the actor first suggested he was keen to relinquish his licence to kill – or be killed.
The latest in a long list of favourites, Aaron Taylor-Johnson is just 2/1 to become the next James Bond. ©GettyImages
During promotional interviews for 2015’s Spectre, Timeout asked Craig: “Can you imagine doing another Bond movie?” His reply seemed terminal. “Now? I’d rather break this glass and slash my wrists. No, not at the moment. Not at all. That’s fine. I’m over it at the moment. We’re done. All I want to do is move on.”
Now Is the Time to Take the New Bond Seriously
Craig eventually moved on and, killed in the closing scenes of No Time To Die, this time there can be no change of heart. Tabloid rumours on the identity of the next James Bond are a time-honoured tradition, but red-top stories should always be taken with a liberal pinch of salt.
However, with the time counting down on the production of the next 007 movie, now is the time to do some serious form study and look at the Bond betting markets objectively. Is there any value among the odds currently advertised by the bookmakers’ taking bets on the next Bond?
Several strongly fancied contenders have fallen by the wayside. The list of former favourites and potential candidates that have reportedly been subject to “significant support” is as extensive as the credit list at the end of any Bond movie.
A Long List of Names and Credits
In 2016, Hobbit actor Aidan Turner, Night Manager tough-guy Tom Hiddleston, Happy Valley actor James Norton, Jamie Bell (the star of Jamie Elliot), Idris Elba and Tom Hardy (Batman) were the names bounded around as market leaders in the press releases issued by UK bookmakers.
Ryan Gosling, best known for his role in La La Land and, more recently, Barbie, had his time as favourite – despite being Canadian, a nationality not befitting any double-0 agent. Michael Fassbender, Boardwalk Empire actor Jack Huston, Daniel Kaluuya and Cillian Murphy were all short in the betting at the end of the 2010s.
Actors that have subsequently traded at single-digit odds in the Bond betting include Jack Lowden (War & Peace and Dunkirk), Sam Heughan (Outlander), Irishman Aidan Turner (The Hobbit), Tom Ellis (Lucifer and Miranda) and Martin Compston (Steve Arnott in TV’s Line Of Duty). Best known as an anti-corruption unit Detective Inspector, the latter can now be backed on 150/1.
Longstanding Trio Among 007 Top Dogs
When Rege-Jean Page left his role as Simon Basset in Netflix’s Bridgerton, he vaulted up the 007 betting lists. As short as 2/1 in the spring of 2021, he has remained among the market principles and is currently top-priced 6/1 at the best novelty betting sites.
James Norton is another candidate who has been a longstanding resident in the higher echelons of the Next James Bond betting lists. His recent role in Bob Marley: One Love has placed his profile back in focus, and the 38-year-old is now trading on 5/1.
Henry Cavill, best known for playing Superman, completes the trio of actors that have remained at the forefront of bookmaker’s 007 betting. The Jersey-born actor is currently industry top-priced 7/2 – with Coral online bookmakers – meaning the 40-year-old actor is the second favourite.
Snowed Under a Weight of Money
It is Aaaron Taylor-Johnson that holds the mantle of favourite. The 33-year-old shot to the head of the betting in November 2022 after the Sun reported: “Aaron went for a screen test to be the next Bond in September, and producers, and Barbara loved him. He is now one of the front-runners.”
Taylor-Johnson is no longer an odds-on favourite, but he is just 2/1 to get the coveted role. Considering he was not listed in the betting 18 months ago, it is a very short price. And remember our expert advice: “Red-top stories should always be taken with a liberal pinch of salt.”
Four other actors are priced under 10/1. Damson Idris – available on 150/1 in July 2023 – has been subject of an avalanche of money and, at just 9/2, is the shortest of them. He is best known for his leading role in the American television crime drama, Snowfall.
Irishman Paul Mescal, Oscar-nominated in the Best Actor category at the 2023 Academy Awards for his role in the tear-jerking movie Aftersun, is 8/1. Dev Patel, who played Jamal Malik in Danny Boyle’s drama Slumdog Millionaire, is also 8/1. Londoner Sope Dirisu (Carter / Finch in the Sky Atlantic series Gangs of London) can be backed on 9/1.
Age Can Narrow the 007 Field
Seven actors have portrayed 007 in a Bond film: Sean Connery, David Niven, George Lazenby, Roger Moore, Timothy Dalton, Pierce Brosnan and Daniel Craig. Most have appeared in several films. Sean Connery and Roger Moore starred in seven Bond movies. Daniel Craig made five appearances, Pierce Brosnan four.
Craig was in his 50s when making No Time To Die. For his replacement, Bond producers are widely believed to be seeking a much younger actor who can carry the baton for many years to come. Craig’s tenure was 15 years. Roger Moore drank shaken but not stirred Vodka Martinis for 12 years.
Pierce Brosnan was 42 when he made his Bond debut (in GoldenEye). Daniel Craig was 38 when he became the world’s best-known secret agent, and early Bonds were much younger. When George Lazenby appeared in 1969s On Her Majesty’s Secret Service he was just 29. Sean Connery was 31 when he starred in Dr. No.
Age will be a barrier when the next James Bond is finally chosen. Idris Elba was the favourite to become the eighth 007 when it appeared Craig was leaving in the mid-2010s. Now aged 51, his odds have drifted out year-on-year, and he can now be backed on 20/1.
In August 2022, Barbara Broccoli – head of the Bond franchise along with Michael G Wilson – told Variety: “We love Idris. The thing is, it’s going to be a couple of years off. And when we cast Bond, it’s a 10-12-year commitment.”
How Old Are the 007 Favourites?
| Name | AGE | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Aaaron Taylor-Johnson | 33 | 2/1 |
| Henry Cavill | 40 | 7/2 |
| Damson Idris | 32 | 9/2 |
| James Norton | 38 | 5/1 |
| Rege-Jean Page | 35 | 6/1 |
| Paul Mescal | 28 | 8/1 |
| Dev Patel | 33 | 8/1 |
| Sope Dirisu | 33 | 9/1 |
| Tom Hardy | 46 | 10/1 |
| Jack Lowedn | 33 | 14/1 |
| Paapa Essiedu | 33 | 14/1 |
| Richard Madden | 37 | 14/1 |
| Aidan Turner | 40 | 16/1 |
Of the frontrunners, Henry Cavill is clearly keen to swap his Superman cape for a tuxedo. He shot to fame playing Charles Brandon in The Tudors between 2007 and 2010, and by posting a slick video on his Instagram account – boasting over 27 million followers – he sent a clear message to Eon Productions in June 2022.
In the video, Cavill, while leaving a Saville Row tailor after a suit fitting, pauses while looking longingly at a classic Bond Aston Martin DB5. Concurrently, in a voiceover, he says: “Of course, life will always have its sweet temptations, some more tempting than others.”
Turning 41 in May, Henry Cavill would be 43, probably 44 and possibly 45 when the next Bond film enters cinemas, so the question has to be, “Will Barbara Broccoli be tempted to cast an actor with age seemingly against them?”
Do Not Distress Over Damson’s A-List Status
Damson Idris has two massive positives. He is black – and there is much speculation that the next James Bond will be black. The time is right, and producer Barbara Broccoli is on the record saying that any actor who next takes on the iconic role must stay true to his Britishness – “but does not necessarily need to be white.”
Secondly, as Esquire relates, “he’s handsome, British, and has won acclaim for his performances, but – importantly – isn’t too much of a mainstream draw just yet.” Indeed, ‘Bond’ has traditionally been a role that elevates actors to the A-list rather than being an A-list vehicle.
Age and Experience on Aaron’s Side
Age is no handicap for Aaaron Taylor-Johnson, and his experience belies his years. He made his film debut aged ten and had bit parts in British TV shows The Bill and Casualty as a young teen. In 2009, aged 18, the High Wycombe-born actor met his future wife, filmmaker Sam Taylor-Wood (then 42), on the set of Nowhere Boy. He played the part of John Lennon in the film.
He has starred in 16 films since. Avengers: Age of Ultron, Godzilla, Tenet, Anna Karenina, and A Million Little Pieces are amongst the better-known productions in which Aaaron Taylor-Johnson has appeared. 2016’s Nocturnal Animals gave him a Golden Globe and a BAFTA nomination for his supporting actor role in the dark psychological thriller.
Taylor-Johnson will appear in three films due to be released in 2024. They are The Fall Guy, an adaptation of the 1980s TV series; Kraven The Hunter, based on the Marvel Comics character of the same name; and Nosferatu, a gothic horror filmed in Prague.
As opposed to Damson Idris, the question is, is Taylor-Johnson overexposed? Ultimately, we do not have the answers. Age, colour, experience, desire and previous success will count for little when the producers have their vision for the future of 007 clear, the script for Bond 26 is ready, and screen tests take place.
