The Flower Is Set to Bloom at the 2024 Academy Awards
The nominations for the 2024 Oscars will be revealed on Tuesday, January 23. The awards ceremony itself will take place on March 10. It is a timeframe that makes now the best time to get involved with the betting markets on some of the Academy Awards’ most sought-after prizes.
Those who have earned critical acclaim and garnered impressive box office takings are among the current market leaders. But dark horses must always be considered. Everything from indie movies made on a shoestring to foreign-speaking features to those directed by the biggest names in filmmaking and starring legendary actors has some chance.
Martin Scorsese has made a film that could give him his second ‘Best Director’ Academy Award and additional Oscars for its star-studded cast. ©GettyImage
It is a film in the latter category that sits prominently in the betting of four of the biggest Academy Awards prizes. However, the public has yet to see Killers of the Flower Moon. After much hype and anticipation, Martin Scorsese’s 26th film – currently 3/1 second favourite in the ‘Best Picture’ category – will hit the screens this weekend.
Within hours of its general release, Oscars betting sites may have to make quick and dramatic price changes. If the critics who have enjoyed an advanced viewing are correct in their hugely positive reviews of this nearly three-and-a-half-hour film, Killers of the Flower Moon will surely see its odds in many Oscar categories slashed.
Oppenheimer, the longstanding favourite, may be dislodged from its spot at the top of the ‘Best Picture’ Oscar betting lists. The odds on Cillian Murphy taking the ‘Best Actor’ Oscar for his role as Oppenheimer could lengthen. And Oppenheimer’s Director, Christoper Nolan, may no longer be odds-on in the ‘Best Director’ category.
Ten Shortlisted for the Best Picture Oscar
The 2024 ‘Best Picture’ market has plenty of names on it: Oppenheimer (5/4), Killers of the Flower Moon (3/1), Poor Things (6/1), Past Lives (10/1), The Holdovers (14/1), Barbie (14/1), The Color Purple (14/1), Maestro (14/1), The Killer (16/1), Anatomy of a Fall (16/1), The Zone of Interest (20/1), May December (25/1), Foe (33/1), Napoleon (33/1), Air (33/1), Saltburn (50/1), The Iron Claw (50/1), and more.
There will be ten ‘Best Picture’ nominees at next year’s awards. All other categories will feature five shortlisted names. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has over 10,000 members. Of these, approximately 9,500 are eligible to vote on the destination of the Oscars.
Accountancy firm PricewaterhouseCoopers uses a complex weighting system to determine the five nominees for each category. After nominations, all members can vote for the winner of each category. The ‘Best Picture’ Academy Award is determined by members ranking their choices in order of preference. In all the other categories, members cast just one vote.
Three Latest Oscar Award Winners
Best Picture
- 2023 – Everything Everywhere All At Once
- 2022 – CODA
- 2021 – Nomadland
Best Actor
- 2023 – Brendan Fraser -The Whale
- 2022 – Will Smith – King Richard
- 2021 – Anthony Hopkins – The Father
Best Actress
- 2023 – Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once
- 2022 – Jessica Chastain
- 2021 – Frances McDormand – Nomadland
Best Director
- 2023 – The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All At Once
- 2022 – Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
- 2021 – Chloe Zhao – Nomadland
Best Supporting Actor
- 2023 – Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once
- 2022 – Troy Kotsur – CODA
- 2021 – Daniel Kaluuya – Judaas & The Black Messiah
Best Supporting Actress
- 2023 – Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once
- 2022 – Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
- 2021 – Youn Yuh-jung – Minari
Poor Things Could Be a Late Bloomer
Killers of the Flower Moon has the potential to scoop plenty of Oscars. Scorsese is top-priced 5/2 (Coral Sportsbook) to win a second ‘Best Director’ Oscar to accompany the one he collected for directing 2006’s ‘The Departed’.
bet365 quotes an industry best 10/3 on Leonardo DiCaprio taking the ‘Best Actor’ gong for his part in Killers of the Flower Moon. Ladbrokes is where you will find the top price of 5/2 on Lily Gladstone taking the ‘Best Actress’ award for her lauded part in the film.
Oppenheimer does not have a representative in the ‘Best Actress’ betting. It is a market headed by 2017 ‘Best Actress’ Oscar winner (for her role in La La Land) Emma Stone. She is the star of Poor Things.
Like Killers of the Flower Moon, this film has yet to go on general release. But Poor Things won the Golden Lion at the Venice International Film Festival, an event that has recently become one of the strongest Academy Awards’ form pointing events.
Poor Things will be released in America on December 8. British film fans will have to wait until January 12 to watch the movie and decide if they believe Emma Stone or her film will collect an Oscar – or two or more!
Fall or Fiction to Compliment Festival Form?
Film festivals are significant form indicators of Oscar success. There are five main film festivals, they are: The Cannes Film Festival, Berlin International Film Festival, Venice Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival, and Sundance Film Festival.
The French film Anatomy of a Fall won the Palme d’Or, the Cannes Film Festival’s top prize. It is now 16/1 for ‘Best Picture’ and its star actress, Sandra Huller, is 13/2 to get the ‘Best Actress’ Oscar. Another chance comes with a 16/1 shot, Justine Triet, in the ‘Best Director’ category.
The Sundance Film Festival will take place in January 2024. Berlin’s Film Festival is scheduled for February 2024. But, in late September 2023, American Fiction, a comedy-drama, earned the Toronto International Film Festival’s top prize, the People’s Choice Award.
This one has yet to make an impression on the bookmakers. American Fiction, opening in cinemas a week before Christmas, is quoted in just two markets – the ‘Best Director’ and ‘Best Picture’ – and is priced 20/1 in each.
